Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Is recent Eastern Conference playoff history an ominous sign for Celtics?

By Sai Mohan | Last updated 3/13/24

Recent history suggests that being the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference doesn't translate to postseason success. In the last 11 seasons, the top seed in the East has advanced to the NBA finals only once: the 2015-16 Cavaliers, who ended up winning the championship.

Last season, the top-seeded Bucks ran into Jimmy Butler and the Heat in the first round. We all remember how that played out. A year before that, No. 1 seed Miami lost to Boston in an epic seven-game series. And in the 2021 playoffs, the top-seeded Sixers blew a 3-1 lead to the Hawks in the second round.

The last two champions to represent the East -- the 2018-19 Raptors and 2021-21 Bucks -- were not even among top three betting favorites entering the playoffs let alone No. 1 seeds.

In the last 11 seasons, the top seed in the Eastern Conference has only advanced to the NBA Finals once (2016). pic.twitter.com/BoHLV5OYll
— Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) March 12, 2024

Should these numbers worry the Celtic faithful?

Boston (51-14) is on pace for a 65-win season with the fifth-largest points differential in NBA history. Its fanbase has every reason to be confident.

That said, 65-win teams aren't guaranteed championships, either. In fact, only two of the last five such teams -- 2014-15 Warriors and 2016-17 Warriors -- hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

It's been a different trend out West where the top seed has advanced to the finals eight out of the last 11 years. The 2017-18 Rockets, the 2020-21 Jazz and the 2021-22 Suns were the only top seeds not to make the finals.

As such, the defending champions Nuggets are a safer bet to win it all than the Celtics. They have in their ranks the ultimate unguardable weapon i.e. Nikola Jokic, the blueprint to win a title and even a 2-0 regular season series win over the C's.

The oddsmakers are picking the Celtics (+220) over the Nuggets (+450) to win it all. Yet, recent history doesn't bode well for Boston's chances.

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