5 Reasons Why The Timberwolves Could Shock The Nuggets And Beat Them In The Second Round

The Minnesota Timberwolves are riding a wave of momentum into the Western Conference semifinals, having just completed a surprising sweep of the Phoenix Suns. The Suns were considered strong contenders, featuring a high-powered trio of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker. Still, the Timberwolves cohesive team play and strategic execution left no room for doubt.

As the Timberwolves prepare to face the Denver Nuggets—who recently dispatched the Los Angeles Lakers in a tightly contested series—the stage is set for a riveting matchup. Denver, the defending NBA champions, are favored to win; however, they now face a Minnesota team that has consistently defied expectations and shown a knack for rising to the occasion. With both teams eyeing a spot in the conference finals, the upcoming series promises intense competition and potential surprises.

1. The Wolves Defense On The Perimeter

The Timberwolves' perimeter defense has been a cornerstone of their playoff success, notably showcased in their series against the Phoenix Suns. Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, and Jaden McDaniels not only managed to shut down the Suns' star-studded lineup but also excelled in defending the pick and roll—a key element they'll need against Denver's dynamic duo of Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray. Murray, in particular, comes off a spectacular first-round performance where he sealed two games with winners against Anthony Davis, highlighting his clutch scoring ability.

During their sweep of the Suns, the Timberwolves' defensive trio faced off against some of the best in the league and came out on top. Bradley Beal was limited to an average of 16.5 points on 44% shooting from the field, a noticeable drop from his usual prolific scoring. Devin Booker, despite averaging 27.5 points, was forced into nearly three turnovers per game, a testament to the Timberwolves' disruptive defense. Kevin Durant, known for his scoring efficiency, was held to 26.8 points per game and committed 2.5 turnovers a game.

This impressive defensive performance against such high-caliber opponents gives the Wolves a solid foundation to challenge the Nuggets offensive threats. With Porter Jr.'s sharpshooting and Murray's playmaking and clutch scoring, the Timberwolves' ability to continue their stringent perimeter defense will be crucial in their quest to upset the Nuggets.

2. A Big Interior Rotation To Go Against Jokic

Nikola Jokic proved to be an unstoppable force in the first round of the playoffs, dominating the Los Angeles Lakers who struggled to find an effective strategy to contain him. Jokic's staggering averages of 28.2 points, 16.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game underscore his impact and versatility. However, the Minnesota Timberwolves might have the tools to offer more resistance.

During the regular season, Rudy Gobert faced difficulties when matched up directly against Jokic. Gobert allowed Jokic to score an average of 10.8 points per game on 61.7% shooting in their direct encounters, and overall, Jokic averaged 33.0 points per game against the Wolves. Despite these daunting statistics, Minnesota’s performance in the playoffs, particularly their defensive prowess displayed against the Suns, suggests they could adjust their approach.

The Timberwolves could choose to let Jokic have his points but focus intensely on shutting down the Nuggets' perimeter scoring, a strategy that would rely on their disciplined defenders not to collapse too much into the paint and thus allow Denver’s shooters open looks. Alternatively, Minnesota could deploy a more aggressive approach, utilizing help from the weak side to disrupt Jokic's rhythm and force him to make tough decisions under pressure.

Minnesota’s bigs, including Gobert, Naz Reid, and Karl-Anthony Towns, provide a substantial and physical rotation that can be used to challenge Jokic continuously. By rotating these defenders, the Timberwolves can attempt to wear down Jokic over the course of the game while still maintaining a fresh defender on him as much as possible. The physicality and defensive rotations of this trio may be key in complicating Denver’s ball movement and limiting Jokic's effectiveness.

3. Anthony Edwards Is Dominating The Playoffs

Anthony Edwards has truly risen to the occasion this postseason, elevating his game to become one of the standout performers, and arguably the best player, of the playoffs thus far. In the first round against the Suns, Edwards averaged a remarkable 31.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists over four games, demonstrating not just his scoring ability but his all-around impact on the court.

His scoring feats included dropping 33 points in Game 1, 36 points in Game 3, and a massive 40 points in Game 4, which clinched the series sweep for the Timberwolves. These aren't just numbers; they're statements of dominance, showcasing Edwards as a player who can take over games and demoralize opponents with his performance.

Beyond his scoring, Edwards has been a menace on defense as well, averaging 2.0 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. His shooting efficiency has been off the charts, with a field goal percentage of 51.2% and an exceptional 43.8% from beyond the arc on high volume—averaging 8.0 three-point attempts and making 3.5 per game. This high-efficiency, high-volume shooting has been critical in Minnesota's offensive strategy.

Edwards’ Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 28.0 ranks him third in the playoffs, trailing only behind juggernauts like Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. This statistic underscores his effectiveness and efficiency, highlighting his importance to the Timberwolves' playoff run.

As Minnesota prepares to face the Denver Nuggets, Edwards' continued dominance could be the x-factor that tips the scales in favor of the Timberwolves. His ability to perform at such a high level in the playoffs not only boosts his team’s confidence but also poses a significant challenge to any defense trying to contain him.

4. Past Playoff Matchup Experience

Last season, the Minnesota Timberwolves faced a tough playoff exit, finishing eighth in the regular season standings and falling to the Denver Nuggets in five games during the 2022-23 first-round series. This previous encounter, though disappointing, has served as a crucial learning experience for a roster that remains largely similar but has significantly improved since then. This season, having secured the second seed, the Timberwolves are clearly a more formidable and successful team, operating at a much higher level.

The past playoff matchup against Denver provides Minnesota with valuable insights into what didn't work last year and what tactical adjustments are necessary to avoid a repeat of last year's shortcomings. This historical perspective is especially important as they prepare to face a Denver team that might be inclined to employ a similar strategy that led to their previous success. However, this could work to Minnesota's advantage, as the Nuggets might not fully adjust to the new dynamics of this upgraded Timberwolves team in the first game, potentially underestimating the changes and improvements made.

Minnesota's improved performance this season, combined with the bitter taste of last year’s defeat, could fuel a more strategic and motivated approach. The Timberwolves have the opportunity to exploit any complacency from Denver, aiming to steal a crucial away game right at the start of the series. This would not only shift the momentum in their favor but also potentially surprise the Nuggets, setting a different tone for the rest of the series compared to last year's matchup.

5. Everything Is Clicking For The Wolves

As the Minnesota Timberwolves prepare to face the Denver Nuggets, they do so with an air of confidence that could only be earned through stellar performance and definitive victories. Their recent sweep of the Phoenix Suns—a team that was widely regarded as a favorite due to the presence of star players like Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker—has significantly boosted their confidence. This victory wasn't just a win; it was a statement that the Timberwolves are not just participants in the playoffs, but contenders.

This surge in self-belief is underpinned by several key factors. First, their defensive capabilities have been nothing short of impressive, with players like Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, and Jaden McDaniels proving they can lock down some of the best talents in the league. Their interior presence, featuring the likes of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, has been formidable, disrupting opponents' offensive strategies and controlling the paint.

Moreover, Anthony Edwards' emergence as a bona fide superstar adds another layer of threat to Minnesota’s arsenal. His ability to dominate games and lead by example has transformed the Timberwolves into a team that others must prepare for seriously.

Coming off a sweep of such a high-caliber team, the Timberwolves carry with them not just a winning streak but a winning mentality. Facing the Nuggets, arguably the best team in the West, now becomes less of an intimidating challenge and more of a legitimate battleground where the Timberwolves can prove their mettle. This mindset, combined with their current form and cohesion, suggests that everything is indeed clicking for Minnesota at the right time, making them a dangerous opponent in this high-stakes matchup.