Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Texas

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Lone Star State on Sunday, this time traversing the high banks of the Texas Motor Speedway in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. 

Texas is turning into a race that's harder and harder to predict, but that doesn't mean we won't try. 

Here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — as well as a driver you'll want to avoid betting on or putting in your fantasy lineup. 

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+350, per DraftKings as of Friday)

Larson is the winner of the Cup Series' only race on a traditional 1.5-mile track in 2024, dominating at Las Vegas for his only win this season. 

He knows how to get around Texas, as he did win at TMS in the fall of 2021 and also won the All-Star Race at the same track earlier in the season. 

Last fall, he was once again in contention before a late crash sent him into the outside wall, ending his day. If he can avoid the SAFER barrier Sunday, he's a good bet to roll into victory lane once again. 

Contender: William Byron (+600)

Not one to be outdone by his HMS teammate, Byron has proved to be the best driver in the Cup Series in 2024, boasting three wins in the first eight races, including last Sunday's race at Martinsville. 

Byron has scored the most wins (11) of any driver since the Next-Gen car was introduced in 2022 and is tied for the series lead in top-10 finishes this season. 

Byron is the defending winner at Texas, beating out Bubba Wallace and the rest of the field on a late restart last fall. If it comes down to crunch time Sunday and Byron is in the mix, don't be surprised if he pulls a rabbit out of his oversized hat and scores his fourth win of the season. 

Dark horse: Bubba Wallace (+1200)

Wallace, who came close to winning at Texas last September, falls into our dark-horse category for the second week in a row.

At a track where passing will be difficult and qualifying will be key, Wallace comes into the weekend as the defending pole winner at Texas. He also has a previous win at a 1.5-mile track (Kansas, September 2022), and Toyota has been consistently fast at venues similar to Texas over the past couple seasons.

Wallace will be looking to avenge his 2023 defeat at the track, and as long as a mechanical failure doesn't take him out, he's a good bet for a top-10 finish and maybe that elusive victory that would lock him into the playoffs. 

Avoid: Chris Buescher (+2800)

Buescher's odds may seem a little long, especially considering the Prosper, Texas native notched three wins and made the Round of 8 just last season. 

However, one look at the stat sheet and a very telling number jumps out at you: In the 14 NASCAR Cup Series races that Buescher has started at his home track, he has zero top-10 finishes.

At a track where Jack Roush's Fords used to dominate, Buescher's best finish at Texas in his five starts for Roush is just 14th last fall, and he's led a grand total of two laps at the 1.5-mile oval in the 4,459 laps he has completed there. 

There may be hope in qualifying, as Buescher sat on the front row last fall, but don't expect a warm homecoming on raceday — Texas has never looked fondly upon its native son.