Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Richmond

The NASCAR Cup Series will be in Richmond, Va., on Sunday for the Toyota Owners 400, the first night race of the season.

Here are three drivers – a favorite, a contender and a dark horse – who may mix it up near the front and another driver who you probably shouldn't expect much from.

Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+500, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

The Cup Series has been to two short tracks in 2024, with Hamlin winning both. Yes, one was the exhibition Busch Lite Clash At The Coliseum, but while it may not have counted for points, it's still a good predictor of who will run well on similar circuits. Richmond is one those.

Richmond is also the Chesterfield, VA.-born and reared Hamlin's home track, one on which he has achieved success throughout his career (four wins and a whopping 2,226 laps led). He is tied with Christopher Bell as the odds-on co-favorite at +500. Don't be surprised if he adds a fifth trophy to his collection.

Contender: Chris Buescher (+1300)

As the most recent winner at Richmond, Buescher must be considered in the top tier of drivers to watch – and yet he's not according to the oddsmakers, which have him only tied for ninth at +1300. That's a big bargain for a driver who has finished in the top three in two of the past three Richmond races and is riding a wave of momentum with three straight top-10 finishes entering the weekend.

Dark horse: Ryan Preece (+10000)

If you scroll much farther down the odds list, one name sticks out as the obvious dark-horse candidate:  Preece, who earned his lone top-five finish of 2023 at Richmond with an impressive fifth-place last summer. He has shown flashes on the short tracks since signing with Stewart-Haas Racing.

Whether or not Preece can back up that performance from last summer is unknown, but he is at least worth a shot in the dark if you're looking for potentially massive value.

Avoid: Tyler Reddick (+1200)

Yes, Reddick won the pole at Richmond last summer and led 81 laps. Until proven otherwise, though, that race is the outlier for him at this track. He has never led in the race aside from last season or finished in the top 10.

In the 2023 spring race, Reddick started in the top five but faded to 16th, which is about on par with most of his other Richmond performances.

The oddsmakers are bullish on Reddick at +1200, but that seems outlandish. If you're rolling with a heavy hitter, there are much safer options.