2024 NASCAR Predictions: Expectations for Noah Gragson at Stewart-Haas Racing

There is no way around it, Noah Gragson had one of the worst rookie seasons in recent memory in the NASCAR Cup Series. From poor performances during the year to his unfortunate ousting from Legacy Motor Club for liking a controversial meme on social media – things did not go according to plan for Gragson.

For 2024, Noah Gragson is back in the Cup Series. He takes over the No. 10 car after Aric Almirola stepped away from Stewart-Haas Racing. The pairing of Gragson and SHR has pros and cons.

When the rumors started up that Gragson would go to SHR, it was interesting, to say the least. It makes sense that out of all the teams, Tony Stewart’s group could look past Gragson’s transgressions. Stewart-Haas is clear they are a racer’s team and that other stuff doesn’t really matter.

Stewart-Haas is also a team that is willing to make a bet on a driver maybe others aren’t willing to do. And, Noah has paid his dues, gone through the process to get back to NASCAR. When thinking about expectations for Gragson, we should think about the ceiling for SHR, too.

In 2023, Stewart-Haas Racing failed to win a race, and Kevin Harvick was their only playoff driver. Almirola specifically, who Gragson is replacing, was 22nd in points as the second-best SHR driver. He had two top-5 finishes, five top-10s, and a stage win.

At a minimum, that is what we should expect from Noah Gragson in 2024. The baseline. So, let’s get into Gragson’s numbers from this year.

Noah Gragson has to improve with Ford and SHR

Giving as much benefit-of-the-doubt as I can, let’s talk about Noah Gragson in 2023. He was with Legacy Motor Club after signing on with GMS Racing. So, it wasn’t exactly what he had signed up for as Jimmie Johnson came on board and changed things around.

Then, early in the season, it was announced that Legacy was ditching Chevy for Toyota in 2024. You could clearly see a dropoff for Gragson and Erik Jones after this point. Chevy likely didn’t want to share too much info with the team as they were leaving.

The best two races of the season for Gragson came at Atlanta (P12) and COTA (P20). He was also a driver who had his nose in there at Talladega before wrecking out.

The good for Gragson – he was a fun personality. Gragson has shown he can win races and intense battles during his Xfinity Series career. A new team, a new body style for Ford, and not a lot of expectations.

The bad – not a single top-10 in the Cup Series. He’s coming off a terrible season performance-wise and on a more personal level. Stewart-Haas Racing hasn’t announced sponsorship for Gragson. Carson Hocevar took over this car late in the season and gave it the best stretch of races it had all year.

So, based on SHR’s recent performances and based on Noah’s performances – Gragson has to have multiple top-5 finishes. He needs to have a handful or more top-10 finishes as well.

I don’t think Noah Gragson needs to win a race in 2024 to have a good season. I think he needs to get through the year with his head on his shoulders and a season that shows improvement. Gragson should aim to be the top car at Stewart-Haas. If he can’t do that, finishing in the top-25 in points would be the next best thing.

Using his teammates as a measuring stick, I think Gragson can turn things around and show he belongs in the Cup Series.