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* * *
When one thinks of giant upsets, single fights with huge odds come
to mind.
Matt Serra vs.
Georges St.
Pierre.
Roxanne
Modafferi vs.
Maycee
Barber. But what about matchups where the initial disparity
between combatants is even greater, but it takes a few years for
them to meet? Where the shift is gradual, and it sneaks up on you?
Consider the recent Bellator Paris main event of
Gegard
Mousasi vs.
Fabian
Edwards. Mousasi was a significant but not enormous favorite at
-250, and Edwards ended up winning the verdict. Not a huge upset,
by itself.
Yet consider where each man was two to three years ago. Mousasi had
defeated
Douglas
Lima to become
Bellator MMA middleweight champion for a second time
and then knocked out an excellent grappler in
John Salter.
He was one of the very best middleweights in any organization and a
pound-for-pound talent. Edwards, meanwhile, took a borderline
robbery against
Mike
Shipman that
83% of observers on MMA
Decisions scored for his opponent, then lost back-to-back
decisions against
Costello
van Steenis and
Austin
Vanderford. A Vanderford, incidentally, that Mousasi would end
up destroying in 85 seconds in early 2022. Edwards was a solid
fighter but appeared to simply lack the skills to fight at an elite
level. If you had claimed in 2020 that Edwards would beat Mousasi,
people would have laughed at you. The odds for Mousasi- Edwards
within the next few years might well have been -1000 or more then.
And yet, here we are. Nor was there anything controversial or lucky
about Edwards' victory; he won at least three rounds, possibly
four. He was the better fighter.
This sneaky shocker occurred through movement at both ends. Leading
up to the bout, Mousasi talked about a persistent injury to his
neck causing numbness in his hands and not allowing him to sleep,
even bringing up retirement. It gives me no pleasure to write this,
considering he has been my favorite fighter for the last 15 years,
but Mousasi should indeed hang it up. At 37 years old, with an
incredible 20 years and 60 fights of professional MMA, he is
washed-up. Against Edwards, he was noticeably slower both in terms
of his movements as well as reactions. His cardio was more limited,
a common issue with older fighters, and he wasn't as physically
strong. Even his major strengths, like his brutal top game,
ground-and-pound, jab, and right cross were all blunted.
However, let us not ignore the incredible improvement and
performance of Edwards. In the biggest match of his career, he put
on the fight of his life. This was a vastly different, better
martial artist than the one who should have lost to
Mike
Shipman in late 2019. He now had a dangerous, accurate right
jab, moved and defended beautifully, and was a much better
grappler, both defensively and offensively. Those who have read my
columns know one of my favorite fighters is Fabian's older brother,
Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight
champion
Leon
Edwards, whom I picked to win and also defend the title against
Kamaru
Usman. For the first time in his career, the younger Edwards
did a pretty good impression of his older brother. Mousasi may be
washed up, but he would still have beaten a lot of quality
middleweights that night, but not Edwards, who I can confidently
state is a top 10 middleweight now.
There are many such examples of giant upsets sneaking up on us. Two
of my favorite come from the first season of The Ultimate Fighter.
Imagine if you told people in 2004 that the drunk maniac and
limited brawler
Chris Leben,
who been dominated by
Josh
Koscheck and lost via cut to the much smaller
Kenny
Florian, would at any point beat the world's greatest light
heavyweight and top pound-for-pound talent
Wanderlei
Silva? Silva at that point was PRIDE's 205 pound king and had
brutally knocked out
Quinton
Jackson twice, the same Jackson who had dominated the UFC's
Chuck
Liddell in the
Pride Fighting Championships Grand Prix.
Moreover, Silva was in the midst of a legendary four-year, 18-fight
unbeaten streak. If you had suggested Leben eventually beating
Silva on a message board in 2004, everyone would have assumed you
were a “TUF noob” who didn't know anything about MMA—not even its
weight classes, since Leben was an average sized middleweight at
best and Silva a light heavyweight. Nor could age be the sole
explanation, as Leben is only four years younger than the
Brazilian.
And yet, in 2011 not only did Leben beat Silva, but he knocked him
out in 27 seconds. He had improved and Silva had become much worse,
with increasingly slow reactions and a brittle chin. Silva was only
around a -200 favorite when it happened but might have been -2000
in 2004. In hindsight, this isn't such a shocking result. Silva's
risky style meant he would always eat a certain number of flush
connects in a fight, and his chin was getting worse all the time.
Even against fairly light punchers like
Shungo Oyama
and
Kiyoshi
Tamura back in Pride, Silva had been briefly knocked down. It's
not surprising that a more technical, powerful, faster striker like
Leben would have put him out when his chin had eroded much more.
However, that's hindsight bias. In 2004, predicting this result
would have you dismissed as an idiot.
How about an instance where both fighters had moved so much that
the initial underdog became a big favorite? If you had said in 2005
that
Kenny
Florian, then a mere 2-2 after being mauled by
Diego
Sanchez in “The Ultimate Fighter” finale, who appeared to have
limited wrestling and striking, with some jiu-jitsu and a nice
elbow as his only weapons, would defeat the greatest lightweight in
the world,
Takanori
Gomi, who was a huge, powerful wrestler and possessed some of
the best, deadliest boxing in the entire sport, you would have been
mocked as a dumb “TUF noob.” Yet by the time they fought in 2010,
it was actually Florian who was the big -350 favorite. Despite only
being 31 years old, Gomi was a shadow of his former self, with a
number of poor performances and losses proving it. He had problems
with cardio, submission defense, striking defense and his chin.
Often, he looked unmotivated and out of shape. Florian, meanwhile,
had utterly transformed himself into an excellent grappler,
including good wrestling, and a solid striker. It was little
surprise when Florian tapped Gomi with a rear-naked choke in Round
3, though it sure would have been five years before.
I encourage readers to look for these sneaky shockers in MMA. It's
fascinating to think of how insane certain results would have
sounded if you had told them to fans just a few years ago.