Young Rays righty to open season on injured list

Rays right-hander Taj Bradley, who underwent an MRI after being scratched from Tuesday’s spring start, will open the season on the 15-day injured list after being diagnosed with a pectoral strain, manager Kevin Cash announced Wednesday morning (X links via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Bradley will be shut down from throwing entirely for “at least” the next two weeks and will be reevaluated at that point. Even in a best-case scenario where he’s cleared to resume throwing at that point, he’d need to build back up and go on a minor league rehab assignment before he’s an option to rejoin the big league rotation.

Bradley’s pec strain is the latest in a series of health troubles for a Rays rotation that is among the most talented in the sport but is also currently among the most injury-ravaged. He’ll join Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery in August 2023), Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery in April 2023) and Drew Rasmussen (internal brace surgery in July 2023) on the injured list for a Tampa Bay club that is still awaiting the return of former top pitching prospect Shane Baz, who underwent his own Tommy John procedure in 2022.

On the surface, Bradley’s loss may not seem critical. The 22-year-old debuted to considerable fanfare in 2023 but turned in an uneven season, ultimately finishing the year with a 5.59 ERA in 104 2/3 big league frames. It wasn't the most exciting debut for a pitcher who entered the season widely considered among the sport’s top 50 to 75 overall prospects. Bradley had his share of strong performances but struggled more often than not in his first taste of the majors.

Despite the shaky bottom-line run prevention numbers, Bradley offered plenty of reason for optimism. His 28% strikeout rate is well north of the league average, while his 8.5% walk rate is solid. He averaged a strong 96.2 mph on his heater and posted slightly better-than-average marks in swinging-strike rate (11.3%) and opponents’ chase rate (32%). His primary issue last year, both in the big leagues and in Triple-A, was seeing an inordinate percentage of his fly-balls leave the yard (19.2% in the majors, 23.1% in 10 Triple-A starts).

However, that hasn’t been an issue for Bradley in the past, even in his first run through the Triple-A level in 2022. Before the ’23 season, Bradley had posted a considerably lower-than-average HR/FB mark throughout his minor league career. Metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize a pitcher’s HR/FB rate, viewed him in a far more favorable light (3.83 and 3.82, respectively). And with 142 1/3 innings pitched in 2023, Bradley was set to enter the 2024 season without limits on his workload. A breakout season seemed quite plausible.

Any such steps forward will be placed on hold indefinitely for the time being, which is a major setback for a Rays club that’s already uncharacteristically thin on rotation depth. Tampa Bay will enter the season with Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale and converted reliever Zack Littell in the top three spots of the rotation. Twenty-six-year-old Ryan Pepiot, acquired from the Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade, will likely grab the No. 4 spot on the staff. He’s long been a touted prospect and carries excellent results in the majors, but injuries have also regularly limited him. He opened 2023 on the 60-day IL with a Grade 2 oblique strain and pitched just 64 2/3 frames overall.

Rotation alternatives in camp include Jacob Lopez, Tyler Alexander and Chris Devenski, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Alexander has started games for the Tigers in the past and had been ticketed for a swingman role with Tampa Bay, but he could conceivably get a look early in ’24 now. He and Devenski were both being stretched out to handle at least three innings at a time in camp, and either could be pushed beyond that point.

Regarding non-roster players, former NPB starter Naoyuki Uwasawa and top prospect Mason Montgomery are the most interesting candidate names in the group. Uwasawa, 30, has a career 3.19 ERA in nine NPB seasons and tossed 170 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Nippon-Ham Fighters in 2023, but he’s a soft-tosser with sub-par strikeout rates even in Japan. He’s been rocked for 13 runs in just 5 2/3 innings in spring training thus far. Montgomery, meanwhile, has just 16 innings above the Double-A level under his belt and has been tagged for three runs in his 4 1/3 spring frames.

Cash indicated that the Rays would consider several in-house options to replace Bradley in the rotation. However, another injury on an already thinly stretched pitching staff will undoubtedly lead to both speculation and some internal discussions about adding from outside the organization. The Rays’ projected $99M Opening Day payroll (via RosterResource), somewhat incredibly, is already a franchise record for the club. That casts doubt on whether they’d even be able to bring in one of the second-tier remaining arms in free agency, such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

That said, several veteran arms on minor league deals elsewhere in the league will likely opt out in the latter stages of camp, plus a slew of pitchers made available via DFA and waivers as other clubs set their Opening Day rosters. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rays add some extra depth in some form between now and Opening Day, particularly if they begin to get the sense that Bradley’s injury will require a longer shutdown period than that best-case outlook of two weeks.