Will Rangers' Offseason Moves Translate to Wins in 2022?

If you can somehow recall the events that transpired before the owners locked out the players on Dec. 2, you might remember the Texas Rangers dropping over half a billion dollars on four free agents. It was a clear cut signal that the club is not only pivoting away from tear-down mode, but believes they can compete in the near future, maybe even as early as 2023.

But what does that mean for 2022? Surely the Rangers have improved beyond 102 losses. The tandem of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is arguably the best middle infield in baseball. Natural growth from internal players is expected. The farm system will likely produce two of its most exciting prospects: Josh Jung and potentially Cole Winn.

Brighter days lay ahead, but how will the moves made in the offseason translate into wins?

According to FanGraphs' 2022 projected standings, the Rangers will finish at the bottom of the American League West division for the third consecutive season with a record of 73-89. That's a 13-win improvement from last season, and it's not outlandish to think it could be a bit better than that. Even FanGraphs' senior writer Dan Szymborski noted it, but the ZiPS projection system confirmed a still significant hole in the Rangers roster.

"I kind of expected the Rangers to come out in the 76-78 win range, but as it happened, any time the team lost two or three starting pitchers for an extended stretch, the staff projections became a nearly-unmitigated disaster in the simulations. This rebuild may still go better than the last one, but there’s a lot of work still to do. The team’s lack of talent at the major league level can’t be rapidly papered over by a few very fun free agent signings."

Despite any projection system, the future of the Rangers' pitching staff has never been brighter. With a crop of names like Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Jack Leiter, Cole Winn, Ricky Vanasco, Owen White, A.J. Alexy, Glenn Otto, Spencer Howard and more, the Rangers have positioned themselves to build a stout rotation before even dipping into the free agent or trade pool (which they already did with the signing of Jon Gray). 

However, this pitching staff is very, very young. Outside of Gray, Hearn has the most big league experience, and he is only entering his first of four arbitration years as a Super Two player. Even then, this will be his first season getting a shot to take on a full starter's workload for a full 162-game season (as long as the lockout or the spread of COVID-19 doesn't shorten it).

Pitching depth is always needed in any season, and it could be even more crucial this year with a shortened spring training likely on the way. As we saw in 2021, lots of youth across the board is incredibly valuable for experience, but doesn't translate well into wins.

Even with such a young pitching staff, a 13-win improvement is very attainable with the additions made to the lineup. Seager and Semien need no explanation. In fact, their presence could even help players like Adolis García and Nathaniel Lowe reach their potential much easier without having to take on the responsibility of being "the guy" in the lineup.

Of course, this is just a projection. When the lockout concludes, the Rangers will likely add more to the roster. Every indication thus far has shown the club wants to add another starting pitcher and potentially an outfielder. If they accomplish either or both, the win projection will likely rise.

It's also important to remember that the moves made this offseason were not intended for success in 2022. It's all part of a long-term plan where the club adds more talent in future offseasons and builds a team that can contend for several seasons. Regardless of how many games the Rangers win in 2022, the future appears to be bright in Texas.

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