What's Next for the Diamondbacks Offseason?

The Diamondbacks made an early flurry of moves this offseason. The first big move was made official on November 22nd,  trading for third baseman Eugenio Suarez, thus plugging a hole from the 2023 season.  They followed that up with the signing of starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year, $80 million dollar contract on December 8th.  A little over a week later word leaked out that the team was bringing back free agent outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42 million dollar deal. That was made official on December 22nd.  The D-backs have committed $122 million free agent dollars and taken on at least another $12 million commitment for Suarez.

At the same time the team has made no fewer than nine minor league signings and a couple of waiver claims, bolstering their organizational depth ahead of spring training. So what's left for the team to do, and how will they go about it?

Payroll

As of today the Diamondbacks' payroll is estimated to be anywhere between $137-$143 million depending on the source and method of calculation.  Already surpassing 2018's previous franchise high of $131 million, there has been much speculation about exactly how much higher ownership is willing to go.  Ken Kendrick indicated following the Gurriel press conference they are not done spending yet, but declined to offer a specific number.  It's been speculated by some that the number is $150 million, which would leave them between $7-13 million left to spend on free agents or absorb in trades.  That may limit their flexibility to achieve some of their goals via free agency, and push them towards making a trade or two. 

Adding One More Impact Hitter

The team is still in search of an additional bat, one that can fill in at designated hitter, and preferably also provide some positional flexibility. Beyond Corbin Carroll and Gurriel, the team does not have another hitter to play outfield or DH that is projected to be an above league average hitter in 2024.   In 2023 Pavin Smith posted an 81 wRC+, Jake McCarthy had a 79 wRC+, and Alek Thomas measured at a lowly 71 wRC+.  100 equals league average, and these three players ranged between 19% to 29% below the league average threshold offensively. 

Steamer projections available at Fangraphs somewhat optimistically project Thomas (97 wRC+), Jake McCarthy (97) and Pavin Smith (98) to all be near league average. While it's not unreasonable to expect young players to improve,  the reliability factor or those projections cannot be considered high.  Clearly the team feels that way, as they've been talking about getting another bat for a long time.

It was originally thought that the team was in search of a right-handed batter, and that may still make the the most sense with current roster construction. General Manager Mike Hazen indicated however that handedness will not preclude him from considering any option. The bat they are seeking could be either right-handed or left-handed. 

Unless the team is prepared to go well beyond the $150 million threshold mentioned above, the perceived higher-end options such as J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, & Teoscar Hernandez are likely out of reach. Each of them is projected to receive a deal with an average annual salary of $14-16 million (according to Roster Resource crowd sourcing).  Slightly less expensive options may include Rhys Hoskins, Justin Turner, or Joc Pederson, each projected to earn $12 million  in 2024.  Each of them would push the team up to or slightly over the $150 million threshold.

The next tier, with options expected to cost between $7-10 million, includes Brandon Belt, Adam Duvall, Carlos Santana, and former Diamondback Tommy Pham.  These are more affordable choices perhaps, but each comes with less surety of above league average production going forward due to age and recent performance.  

For these reasons the team may turn to the trade market, but that is a slowly developing area. Despite being able to strike early with the Suarez deal, Hazen said it's difficult to make trades with so many free agents still available on the market. It's almost impossible to correctly assess who Hazen might target in a trade, but the advantage he would be seeking is either a pre-arbitration eligible player or one that has at least two to three years of control remaining at arbitration wages that would be lower than what is available on the free agent market. Of course, such a player would cost prospect capital and perhaps even talent off the projected major league roster.

Backup Catcher

We have written about the lack of depth behind Gabriel Moreno and the team's search for a reliable backup catcher.  One name that was previously linked to the team but is still on the open market is Tucker Barnhart. There have already been half a dozen backup catchers signed for between $4-$6 million dollars for 2024.  A couple of other options may include Yasmani Grandal or Gary Sanchez. They are expected to receive about $5-$6 million for 2024.  While filling the above mentioned hitter need is a bigger priority, the team can't afford to ignore the lack of catching depth and it's not going to be free. 

More Pitching

Hazen said the team will continue to be active around the edges of the market always on the hunt for more pitching depth. Most of the minor league signings the team has made have been for relief pitching depth. Expect quite a few more of those types of deals. Later this month or even just before spring training, it would not surprise to see the team make a pickup while bargain hunting for the major league roster as well.