The Blue Jays, QO and Steven Matz Win-Win

The Toronto Blue Jays extending a Qualifying Offer to Steven Matz would be in the everyone’s best interest

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The fact that the Jays will extend qualifying offers to both Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien are all but foregone conclusions. However they should also offer a qualifying offer to Steven Matz, and he may just take it!

From the Blue Jays perspective, if Matz rejects the qualifying offer they will obtain a much coveted draft pick as compensation. However, this should not be the purpose of the QA from the Jays perspective. They should make the QO because they want him to accept. Now granted the QO is expected to be in the 19-20 million dollar range and this is more than Matz is worth per year but paying a pitcher like Matz a few million extra on a one year deal should not be an issue at all for a large market team like the Blue Jays.

Standard Pitching

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP	WHIP
2015	24	NYM	4	0	2.27	6	35.2	34	9	4	10	34	3.61	1.234
2016	25	NYM	9	8	3.40	22	132.1	129	50	14	31	129	3.39	1.209
2017	26	NYM	2	7	6.08	13	66.2	83	45	12	19	48	5.05	1.530
2018	27	NYM	5	11	3.97	30	154.0	134	68	25	58	152	4.62	1.247
2019	28	NYM	11	10	4.21	30	160.1	163	75	27	52	153	4.60	1.341
2020	29	NYM	0	5	9.68	6	30.2	42	33	14	10	36	7.76	1.696
2021	30	TOR	14	7	3.82	29	150.2	158	64	18	43	144	3.79	1.334
7 Yr	7 Yr	7 Yr	45	48	4.24	136	730.1	743	344	114	223	696	4.34	1.323
162	162	162	11	12	4.24	33	179	182	84	28	55	171	4.34	1.323
NYM	NYM	NYM	31	41	4.35	107	579.2	585	280	96	180	552	4.49	1.320
TOR	TOR	TOR	14	7	3.82	29	150.2	158	64	18	43	144	3.79	1.334
NL (	NL (	NL (	31	41	4.35	107	579.2	585	280	96	180	552	4.49	1.320
AL (	AL (	AL (	14	7	3.82	29	150.2	158	64	18	43	144	3.79	1.334

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2021.  

If Matz accepts the offer the Jays assure themselves of his services for the upcoming season which takes some pressure off the organization to acquire another starter. Furthermore, the fact that this is a one year deal should not preclude them from making another addition to the rotation should they be able to do so (and they should still try to do that even with Matz signed to a contract). Securing another year of control over a very good pitcher very early in the off season is worth a lot to a team like the Jays.

From Matz’ perspective given his inconsistent pitching history he may be interested in taking the QO if he feels like betting on himself, as a second consecutive very good year will help him secure a much bigger contract next year (with no possibility of a QO attached to him). This is in addition to the large one year payday the QO assures him. Kevin Gausman did last year by accepting the QO and staying with the Giants.

Furthermore, with the uncertainty surrounding the new collective bargaining agreement Matz, if offered a QA, may decide to negotiate a similar contract amount with the Jays which includes a large signing bonus as a way to ensure he still gets some serious cash in the event of a work stoppage.

In conclusion there is no downside to the Blue Jays offering Matz the qualifying offer as there is no such thing as a bad one year contract. It may be an overpay by a few million, but they can afford it next year for sure. There is also a few very good reasons for Matz to accept as it will secure a very good payday for him in 2022 and allows him to earn a larger multi-year deal next year that may not be in the offering this time around.