Tampa Bay Rays 2024 Over/Under Regular Season Win Total

The Tampa Bay Rays will look to try and have another productive season. We’re here to share our MLB odds series and make a Rays over-under win total prediction for the 2024 season.

The Rays went 99-63 last season in what was another great regular season for the team. There are some highlights from last year to look at before we make a prediction for the 2024 season.

Zach Eflin went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA. Meanwhile, Aaron Civale went 7-5 with a 3.46 ERA through 23 combined starts for the Rays and Cleveland Guardians. Josh Lowe finished with a batting average of .292, 20 home runs, 83 RBIs, and 71 runs while also stealing 32 bags. Also, he had an on-base percentage of .335. Harold Ramirez hit .313 with 12 home runs, 68 RBIs, and 58 runs with an on-base percentage of .353 in 400 at-bats. Also, Randy Arozarena finished with a batting average of .254, 23 home runs, 83 RBIs, 95 runs, along with 22 stolen bases and an on-base percentage of .364. Yandy Diaz hit .330 with 22 home runs, 78 RBIs, 95 runs, and an on-base percentage of .410.

The Rays likely will have to contend with player losses of a variety. Significantly, Wander Franco is still on administrative leave after it was discovered he had an inappropriate relationship with a minor.

The Rays did not do much to replace him, and even worse, they did not get much back in free agency. Ryan Pepiot was the only significant player they received after they acquired him in a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He went 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA over eight games and three starts with the Dodgers last season. But the Rays also lost Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot, both of whom they traded to the Dodgers.

Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Rays 2024 Win Total Odds

Over 84.5 Wins: -115

Under 84.5 Wins: -105

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Why Rays Will Win 84.5 Games

There is still a lot of talent on this team. Ramirez, Arozarena, Lowe, and Diaz are still around and will power this lineup once again. Additionally, the Rays have Isaac Paredes back. Paredes finished with a batting average of .250 with 31 home runs, 98 RBIs, 71 runs, and an on-base percentage of .352. Ultimately, Arozarena is a 20/20 guy. Lowe is a solid opposite-field hitter.

But as always, the Rays will rely on their pitching staff. Eflin has an 8-1 strikeout/walk ratio through nine inning ratio. He has an amazing fastball and curveball combo. Likewise, Civale can go deep into games. But the Rays also were the team that invented the opener. That means they will likely continue to implement that strategy every fifth game. The Rays still have a strong bullpen that can fool hitters and cause them to swing at pitches out of the zone.

The Rays will win 85 games because they have four solid hitters who can change the game on a dime. Additionally, they have two potentially elite pitchers and a pitching staff that is very solid.

Why Rays Won’t Win 84.5 Games

The Rays play in the American League East. Therefore, they will have a problem getting through all the teams in this division. The Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays all made some moves, and all of them can win 90 games. Even the Boston Red Sox can give this team fits. It also does not help that the Franco situation is still murky.

Franco was one of the best players on the roster until the allegations came out. Now, the Rays must figure out what to do at shortstop. Taylor Walls is a Gold Glove finalist. However, he is also a poor hitter after batting .201 with eight home runs, 36 RBIs, 50 runs, and an on-base percentage of .305 last season. While the Rays like what they have in Jed Lowe, Brandon Lowe is inconsistent. He hit .231 with 21 home runs, 68 RBIs, 58 runs with an on-base percentage of .328. Catcher Rene Pinto is not good. Unfortunately, he hit .252 with six home runs, 16 RBIs, and 10 runs last season. Therefore, he will need to show he can do more.

Taj Bradley was supposed to be an ace. Instead, he struggled in his first 21 starts, generating a 5.52 ERA. What else does he have in his arsenal aside from a 96 MPH fastball? Losing Glasnow will hurt them.

The Rays will not win 85 games because there are so many issues in this lineup. Additionally, their pitching staff will take a hit.

Final Rays Over/Under Win Total Prediction

This would be a much simpler bet if the spread were 94 wins. But the line stands at 84.5 right now, and those are amazing odds. Yet, they lost Glasnow, and Franco may never return. But they basically retained almost everyone else. This is still a really good team that can string together a good winning streak. Expect the Rays to finish anywhere between 86-88 wins. The Rays cover the win-total odds.

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Final Rays Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 84.5 Wins: -115