Shohei Ohtani will not be traded, but let's find a comp anyway

Fans, media, industry insiders, opposing players and even your cousin's barber have all voiced plenty of speculation about what uniform Shohei Ohtani will wear after the season. The natural assumption seems to center on common conclusion: the Los Angeles Angels will not retain the two-way superstar. 

Most expect Ohtani to leave via free agency this winter. A trade before the Aug. 1 deadline seems increasingly more unlikely despite the Angels' place in the standings, losing Mike Trout to injury and the team's overall inconsistent play. MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi examined the very subject, speaking with a number of industry executives, while focusing on the bigger impact to the Angels organization: 

"Even if the Angels miss the postseason, value exists in keeping Ohtani on the roster until he reaches free agency. There are viewership numbers every time he plays. There are the marketing revenues and sponsorships attached to his presence. There's the very realistic chance that he'll win his second American League MVP Award.

Ohtani leads the Majors with 31 home runs, which puts him on pace for 56 over the full season. If you think Ohtani is a global phenomenon now, just wait until he's slugging in September with a chance to reach 60 homers."

Los Angeles could — and likely will — stand pat with regard to its deadline plans and Ohtani. Morosi's conclusion that a trade is not going to happen is likely right, but for the sake of argument, let's examine what a potential return might need to look like. 

Trading for a rental player -- a player whose contract is typically expiring following the season who is subsequently traded at the deadline, usually to a contender -- is an imperfect science. Context and the goals of organizations vary, so comparing one to the next is challenging. That said, there have been significant deals for rental players in recent years that we can look to. 

The Texas Rangers waited until the very last minute in July 2017 to agree to a deal sending Yu Darvish to the Los Angeles Dodgers. As MLB.com's Sam Butler noted at the time, Texas was struggling to play .500 ball and GM Jon Daniels made the "tough decision to replenish the farm system." Texas received three players ranked in MLB Pipeline's Top 30 from the Dodgers system: outfielder Willie Calhoun (2), right-hander A.J. Alexy (19) and infielder Brendon Davis (20). 

One year later, Baltimore's Manny Machado was moved, with the Dodgers coincidentally and conveniently involved again. Like Texas, Baltimore had a disappointing record and it sought a way to maximize the return on a player it knew it couldn't re-sign long term. The Orioles received five players from Los Angeles, three of whom ranked in MLB Pipeline's Top 30: outfielder Yusniel Diaz (4), right-handed pitchers Dean Kremer (27) and Zach Pop and infielders Rylan Brannon (28) and Breyvic Valera. 

Neither return has necessarily brought the results Texas and Baltimore hoped, of course. Calhoun gave Texas a .241/.300/.407 line with 32 home runs (21 of them coming in 2019) over six seasons. Diaz has just one at-bat in the majors for Baltimore. 

Ohtani is a different pitcher than Darvish. He's also a different hitter than Machado. He's a unicorn in every sense of the word in the baseball world. Acquiring Ohtani as a rental player is going to likely cost a team more than either of these two packages did. 

The Dodgers have routinely come up as a potential landing spot for Ohtani in free agency, for a host of reasons. Their current group of top prospects is front-loaded with MLB-ready pitching and power-hitting catchers. A deal with their "neighboring" Angels to acquire a player of Ohtani's caliber may even be extra costly. The Dodgers might even be one of the few teams able to put a package on the table strong enough to get the Angels to listen, but don't count on it happening.