Ryne Nelson Must Find Consistency at Home

In his last three starts, Nelson has allowed just five runs in 19 1/3 innings with 18 strikeouts and three walks. In his last two starts, he's cleared the seventh inning. The key pitch in his turnaround has been the changeup. In his last three starts, opponents are hitting .083 with a .167 slugging percentage against the change. That has proven to be his most reliable out pitch against left-handed hitters who were hitting .336 against him with a .592 slugging percentage in his first 14 starts. In his last three starts, lefties are hitting .075 (3-for-40) while slugging .200.

Carlos Carrasco hasn't had a great year with the Mets, pitching to a 5.94 ERA as all his pitching metrics have significantly declined this season. His fastball has been hit hard this year, with opposing hitters batting .400 with a .714 slugging percentage while quality of contact metrics backing that up. The slider and changeup have been Carrasco's most reliable out pitches against righties and lefties respectively. So for the D-backs the plan will be to hunt fastballs. 

Lineups

Over their last seven games, Arizona is 2-5. Over that stretch their offense has struggled as they're hitting .202 with a .618 OPS and scoring less than three runs per game. In their five losses, they've scored a total of nine runs.

D-backs manager Torey Lovullo named Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as the bat they need to get going in the lineup. The All-Star outfielder is hitting .167 with five home runs and a .574 OPS since June 10th. 

Ketel Marte is back in the lineup today. He missed the first game of the series and made a pinch-hit appearance in the ninth inning in last night's loss.

Bullpen

The ninth inning has been an issue for the D-backs this year, as Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro, and Scott McGough have each struggled closing out games of late. The backend of the bullpen is an area the D-backs will look to address at the trade deadline later this month.

With the starting rotation producing better results of late, there have been fewer long relief opportunities for Drey Jameson. With that in mind, it's likely we see him in shorter outings and perhaps a different role down the road.

Kyle Nelson has thrown in the first two games games in this series and is likely unavailable to pitch tonight. He's only thrown 16 pitches in those two outings.

Mets closer David Robertson has also pitched in both games and could be unavailable. The Mets have had issues when they've had to deviate from their traditional late inning combination of Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, and Robinson. That could come into play if Arizona knocks Carrasco out of the game early.