Previewing the 2022-23 free-agent class: Shortstops

With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR will be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position basis. We’ve already run through this winter’s crop of catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen. You can check out the full list of this offseason’s free agents here, but today we’ll dive into yet another deep class of star-caliber shortstops who are likely to become available.

The Big Four

• Xander Bogaerts (30 years old next season)

While not technically a free agent yet, there’s no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60M on his contract — if the two parties can’t first work out an extension. That’ll be the team’s focus for the next month, but failing a new long-term deal, Bogaerts will opt out, receive a qualifying offer, reject it and become a free agent for the first time in his career.

The 2022 season marked something of an odd year for the four-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger winner. Bogaerts’ power numbers (15 home runs, .149 ISO) dipped to their lowest point since 2017, but he also enjoyed the defensive season of his career by measure of virtually every publicly available metric (4 Defensive Runs Saved, 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average).

In seasons past, Bogaerts’ glove was seen as his primary flaw. He’s typically graded out as a below-average defender and been seen as a candidate for an eventual position change. This year’s performance will likely quiet that chatter for now, and while the drop in power is of some concern, power was down throughout the league and Bogaerts did regain some extra-base pop in the season’s final couple months.

Besides, his .307/.377/.456 batting line from 2022 was still excellent, and when looking at the past half-decade on the whole, Bogaerts owns a stout .300/.373/.507 slash with 105 homers, 177 doubles, a 9.9% walk rate and an 18.1% strikeout rate in 2737 plate appearances. He’ll play all of next season at 30 years old, and it’s reasonable to expect the market could produce at least a seven-year deal for him.

• Carlos Correa (28)

There was never much doubt, but last week, Correa publicly declared for the first time that he’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $70.2M on his contract (barring an extension before his opt-out date, five days after the World Series). Correa will return to the open market having just turned 28 years old and on the heels of a strong .291/.366/.467 batting line in what could very well be his lone season as a Twin. He’s said all the right things about enjoying his time in Minnesota and hoping to ink a long-term deal in a setting that his young family has already grown to love, but an extension feels like a long shot.

The 2022 season wasn’t Correa’s best, but that’s only because of the lofty standards he’s previously established. Correa was 40% better than average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, but his previously Platinum Glove-winning defense fell to merely above-average, per DRS and UZR. (Notably, OAA pegged his glovework as actually slightly below average.) Twins brass has spent much of the year lauding Correa’s glovework, leadership and clubhouse presence. There’s surely some genuine interest in keeping him, but doing so would require eclipsing Joe Mauer’s $184M guarantee for the largest contract in franchise history — likely by a rather large margin.

Correa had plenty of injuries earlier in his career and had a pair of brief IL stints in 2022 due to a minor finger injury and a spell on the Covid list. But he’s played in 89% of his team’s games over the past three seasons and logged a hefty 132 wRC+ in that span. Since 2018, his 50 DRS are tied for sixth-most in MLB, regardless of position. His 45 OAA places him seventh.

It’s hard to imagine Correa securing the reported $330M+ he was reportedly seeking in free agency last winter. He’s a year older now and coming off a strong but lesser season than his career year in 2021. That said, he’s still squarely in his prime, is generally regarded as a plus contributor on both sides of the ball and in the clubhouse, and he finished out the season on a high note, ranking as one of the AL’s most productive bats over the final two months. He’s also the only one of this top-tier group that can’t receive a qualifying offer (by virtue of receiving one last year).

• Dansby Swanson (29)

Traded by the Diamondbacks just six months after being selected with the No. 1 pick in 2015, Swanson made his big league debut barely one year after that top overall selection. After a few years of anywhere from lackluster to downright poor offensive output, Swanson turned a corner in 2019 and, since 2020, has been an above-average offensive player: .265/.324/.451, 62 home runs, 80 doubles, three triples, 32-for-42 in stolen bases.

Granted, by measure of wRC+, Swanson has “only” been nine percent better than league-average at the plate in that three-year span (though 16% in 2022 alone). But, for a player who provides plenty of baserunning value and has been considered anywhere from a plus to an elite defender at shortstop, that’s plenty of bat. Swanson’s 2022 season, in particular, has been sensational in the eyes of DRS (9) and OAA (20). Statcast has been particularly bullish on Swanson’s defense over the years, ranking him 13th among all big leaguers in OAA (38) and 15th in Runs Above Average (28) since the start of the 2018 season.

Swanson will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Braves, subjecting him to draft pick compensation this winter. At 29 years old this February, he’s the second-youngest in this top tier. Swanson surely took note as both Javier Baez and Trevor Story — who also had a qualifying offer attached to him — landed six-year deals with $140M guarantees last year at the same age last winter.

• Trea Turner (30)

Quite arguably the best shortstop on the market this winter, Turner will reach free agency for the first time on the heels of a .298/.343/.466 slash (128 wRC+) in 160 games and 708 plate appearances. Turner’s 21 homers this year were down from last year’s career-best 28, and with “just” 27 steals (in 30 tries), he’s perhaps no longer the annual threat for 40-plus steals he was earlier in his career.

That said, Turner has hit .298 or better in each of the past four seasons and has never fanned at even a 20% clip in a full Major League season. He’s batted .311/.361/.509 (133 wRC+) over the past four seasons, played in 89.6% of possible games along the way (92% since 2018) and averaged 26.5 home runs and 35.1 steals per 162 games played. Turner graded as a standout defender at shortstop in 2018 but has been about average by measure of both DRS and OAA since that time. Even if he eventually moves off shortstop, Turner’s athleticism figures to make him adaptable to a new position; he posted plus defensive grades in two months as the Dodgers’ second baseman following the 2021 trade that sent him to L.A.

Turner, who’ll turn 30 next June, is younger than Bogaerts but 10 months older than Swanson and nearly two years older than Correa. Like Bogaerts and Swanson, he’s both eligible to receive and extraordinarily likely to reject a qualifying offer, which will subject him to draft-pick compensation this winter. With the market’s very top free agents, that’s often the cost of doing business and rarely something that will cause a big-market club to withhold interest entirely — but it’s a factor that’s at least worth noting.

The ten-year megadeals that 30-year-old free agents were once occasionally able to command (e.g. Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols) have generally fallen to the wayside, as teams tend to reserve lengths of ten or more years for players who are in their mid-20s. Position players reaching the market around Turner’s age have more recently been capped at signing through age-37, which would mean an eight-year deal in Turner’s case. Given his rare blend of power and speed, his durability and his general athleticism, Turner can also expect to command a salary near the top of the AAV scale for position players.

Veterans Coming Off Solid Seasons

• Elvis Andrus (34)

At 34, Andrus isn’t the player he once was, but he still hit quite well after being released by the A’s and signing with the White Sox (.271/.309/.464, nine homers in 191 plate appearances). The 17 home runs Andrus hit this past season were his most since 2017. (It bears mentioning, too, that his release was less about his level of play than about ensuring that he didn’t receive the playing time to trigger a $15M player option.)

A premier defender earlier in his career, Andrus now receives split grades from defensive metrics. Statcast still feels that he’s a plus defender, but DRS has given him negative marks for the past four years. If a team agrees that Andrus remains at least an above-average shortstop, this year’s rebound at the plate could net him a two-year deal. At the very least, Andrus should command a one-year, Major League contract to serve as a team’s primary shortstop.

• Aledmys Diaz (32)

Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .255/.302/.427 line in 2022 is quite similar to the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties. He’s had just eight plate appearances with the Astros in the postseason thus far, going 1-for-7 and also getting hit by a pitch.

• Jose Iglesias (33)

Like Andrus, Iglesias was once considered one of MLB’s top defensive shortstops but has seen his ratings plummet. He posted a staggering -22 DRS with the Angels and Red Sox in 2021, though he bounced most of the way back in 2022 and finished with a -4 mark. OAA has him as a scratch defender over the past few years.

At the plate, Iglesias continues to post solid or better batting averages thanks to excellent bat-to-ball skills, but he still has one of the worst walk rates in the game. He hit .292/.328/.380 with the Rockies in 2022. Iglesias will turn 33 in January and, after signing one-year deals in his last two trips to the open market, will find similar offers this winter.

Notable Rebound Hopefuls

• Didi Gregorius (33)

It’s been a swift decline for Gregorius, who starred in the Bronx as the successor to Derek Jeter and looked strong in the first season of his post-Yankees career, hitting .284/.339/.488 for the Phillies while playing in all 60 games of the shortened 2020 campaign. In two seasons since, he’s flopped with a .210/.267/.345 batting line, leading to his release in August. He won’t turn 33 until February, so there’s time for him to bounce back, but the 2021-22 seasons were disastrous.

• Andrelton Simmons (33)

It’s hard to compare the defense of current players to those from prior generations, but Simmons has a legitimate case as one of the greatest defensive players ever. He’s the all-time leader in DRS, which dates back to 2002, and is fourth since the inception of UZR and OAA. He has four Gold Glove Awards and a Platinum Glove win, and Simmons would probably have more hardware were it not for a few injury-shortened seasons. Unfortunately, his bat has also cratered in recent years, with just a .216/.277/.261 slash between the Twins and Cubs in 2021-22. Among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Simmons ranks third-worst with a 53 wRC+. The Cubs released him on Aug. 7.

• Jonathan Villar (32)

Villar hit 24 homers and swiped 40 bags with the O’s in 2019, struggled through a dismal showing between Miami and Toronto in 2020, and rebounded nicely with the 2021 Mets. The pendulum swung back in the other direction this year, as he was released by both the Cubs and Angels while hitting a combined .208/.260/.302. At his best, Villar is a switch-hitter with some power and difference-making speed, but he’s been wildly inconsistent in a career that has featured more valleys than peaks.

Depth Options

• Johan Camargo (29): Camargo had a big 2018 season with the Braves and has never recreated it, hitting .219/.271/.348 over the past four seasons. He’s a utility option but did log 186 innings at shortstop for the Phillies this year.
• Alcides Escobar (36): Escobar had a brief resurgence with the 2021 Nats, but that was the only time since 2014 his bat has been close to average. He hit .218/.262/.282 in 131 plate appearances with Washington this year.
• Marwin Gonzalez (34): Gonzalez played only 94 innings at short from 2019-21, but the Yankees gave him 134 innings there in 2022. The veteran switch-hitter is primarily a utility option, though, and this year’s .185/.255/.321 slash in 207 plate appearances leaves plenty to be desired.
• Dixon Machado (30): Machado hit .280/.359/.393 in 277 games in the Korea Baseball Organization from 2020-21 and posted similar Triple-A numbers between the Cubs and Giants this year. He’s never hit in the Majors, however, evidenced by a .226/.285/.292 batting line in 522 trips to the plate.
• Deven Marrero (32): A former first-round pick and top prospect, Marrero is a .191/.246/.279 hitter in 373 Major League plate appearances across parts of seven seasons. He saw brief time with the Mets in 2022.
• Richie Martin (28): The top pick by the Orioles in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, Martin survived his Rule 5 season in the Majors but never found his stride, perhaps in part due to injuries. He’s now a career .212/.261/.311 hitter in 447 MLB plate appearances and has just a .240/.336/.366 slash in parts of two Triple-A seasons.
• JT Riddle (31): Riddle got some run with the Marlins in 2017-19 but has barely surfaced in the Majors since. He’s a .223/.261/.354 hitter in 797 MLB plate appearances.
• Dee Strange-Gordon (34): The fact that the 2022 Nats gave Strange-Gordon 100 innings at shortstop for the first time since 2013 says more about the team than the player. The three-time NL steals champ hasn’t logged 100 plate appearances in a season since 2019. He hit .305 in 59 plate appearances this year but did so without a walk and with just two extra-base hits. Since 2018, he’s batted .268/.293/.343 in 1150 plate appearances.
• Tyler Wade (28): Wade hit .264/.354/.328 in 145 plate appearances with the 2021 Yankees but has couldn’t duplicate it with the 2022 Angels. He’s a .214/.291/.298 hitter in the Majors but does have some defensive versatility to go along with a more palatable .279/.353/.408 slash in parts of four Triple-A seasons.