MLB Win Totals: A Deeper Look at the Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves Win Totals

Over 94.5 (-115) / Under 94.5 (-105) 

To begin with, the Braves won 101 games a year ago so this is well within the range of possibilities, even if you think they are going to give some back this season. That is a lot of games to win but there is not much of an argument that this is not one of the best teams in the league. That could be true and they could still win just 93 games this season though. The market is shaded to the over but it feels very reasonable. 

Are The Braves Better or Worse than a year ago?

The Braves have a great lineup, led by some of the best young stars in the game — OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and 3B Austin Riley. They have a rare combination of actually being a young and accomplished group at the same time, which is why they have been so willing to give out some big contracts. The big change from last year to this is SS Dansby Swanson is playing elsewhere. Insert prospect Vaughn Grissom and the Braves should be just as good as they were a year ago. Give them a little better health and they could be the top offense in the National League. They also probably upgraded at catcher thanks to another trade with the A's that landed them Sean Murphy. The lineup is definitely not fading. 

On the mound, they stood pat as well, which is more than fine. Atlanta has a nice starting rotation and backed by a strong lineup they can all be successful. Max Fried was great last year and Kyle Wright led the league in wins. Charlie Morton is 10 years older than any other starter, but the also might be the best big-game pitcher they have. I really like their group and Mike Soroka, who looked like a budding ace a few years back, might be finally available again this season. The bullpen is well seasoned, featuring mostly arms that have been on the club as they have retaken the NL East.  There is no reason to think the pitching is going to take a step back this season either. 

The Pick: Over 94.5

This is one of the highest totals on the board right now. I am not sure the Braves are the best team in the majors, but it is hard to see how this team cools off significantly unless the injury bug bites hard. That is unlikely too because most of their players are in their prime, or getting to it. A few fewer games against the Marlins and Nationals won't make things easier but when you are at the top of the league, you do not need to worry as much about those advantages. Some of those games will get replaced by other bad teams like the Royals too. You will have to wait a while to cash but you could even bet this one up a win or two and feel good. 

Usually, there is not as much value at the top of the win totals tables. However, Atlanta might be among the safest bets once again this season.