MLB Win Totals: A Deeper Look at the Arizona Diamondbacks

Here is a deeper look at Arizona, through the lens of its Win Total future.

Arizona Diamondbacks Win Total

Over 75.5 Wins (-115) Under 75.5 Wins (-105)

Before we look at the team, let's talk about some pricing. Right now the market is shaded to the over.  That could mean there is a little more optimism about the Diamondbacks being better than what they have been recently. They won 74 games a season ago. The Under has a slightly better payoff but that spread is pretty narrow right now. This might just be the sportsbooks more than the market.

Are the Diamondbacks Better or Worse Than a Year Ago?

Probably (sorta). The big move from the offseason was trading versatile OF/C Daulton Varsho for emerging catcher Gabriel Moreno. That move could net them an All-Star level player at a critical position, but right now it is not clear whether Moreno will even start for Arizona (or if he is ready to begin the season in the Majors in any role). Varsho was second on the team in homers, RBIs, and stolen bases last season. Plus he played elite defense. Lourdes Gurriel was also acquired in the same deal and looks like he might be the regular DH for Arizona this season. The rest of the lineup looks pretty much the same. It is hard to say this team improved in the short term offensively.

On the mound, things look pretty static for Arizona too. They do have a couple of strong starters in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but no real additions to this group. Ryne Nelson is expected to fill a rotation spot to begin the season. He is unproven, but there is some potential there. In the bullpen, they have added some free-agent arms that improve depth but hardly add excitement. Arizona lacks the kind of intimidating arms that are common in bullpens these days. It is hard to say their pitching has improved much as a team. There is massive risk as they are still relying on Madison Bumgarner to actually give them some innings too. 

The Pick: Under 75.5

The outlook for Arizona feels pretty firmly that they are about what they were a year ago. They might have shuffled things around a little but it is hard to see real improvement. The schedule might help but games they gain from not playing L.A. or SD, they also lose from playing Colorado, one of the worst teams in the league. If the Diamondbacks were noticeably better taking the over might be the play but I just don't see it right now

Also, Arizona has a brutal start to the season. Their first four series are against the Dodgers (2x), the Padres, and the Brewers. All teams that are supposed to be better than they are this season. If you do think the Diamondbacks are improved, you can likely get a better number on the over in mid-April (or maybe even buy out of an under position with a small profit early ... if your book allows that)