MLB parlay: Backing Cole is good for your soul

We start this fresh August week with a look into the hits allowed market. These pitcher props have been some of the most reliable this season from a hit-rate perspective, and there are plenty of factors that bring these two across the finish line. 

Two-leg hits allowed parlay we'd like to hit

First leg: Gerrit Cole under 5.5 hits allowed (-140 DraftKings)

Gerrit Cole has been cruising along this season for the Yanks, 10-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to go along with 157 Ks in 143.1 IP. We considered New York's moneyline in this one against the White Sox but pivoted to this market for Cole once we dove into the numbers a bit more.

Cole has allowed five or fewer hits in five straight starts and 70% of his starts this season. It seems likely to us that this success continues tonight against Chicago. The White Sox are one of the worst-hitting teams against right-handed pitchers on the year. No team has a lower on-base percentage vs. RHP than Chicago, and their wRC+, a metric we've mentioned before that quantifies the quality of a team's hitting, is the third-worst in the league against righties.

Cole should have the opportunity to cruise through this lineup, and we like that success to come through in this hits allowed market on the under.

Second leg: Kodai Senga over 4.5 hits allowed (-135 DK)

The Mets' Kodai Senga is fresh off his worst start of the year as it relates to this market, allowing 11 hits to the Royals of all teams. We're thinking there's a chance those struggles can carry over tonight, especially with how hot the Cubs' bats have been.

Chicago now owns the ninth-best wRC+ against RHP, and their on-base percentage is tops in the league against righties. We're now just realizing that we've looked at both New York-Chicago games, so we suppose that must be a sign that pairing these two in such a manner is the right play.

The play: Cole under 5.5 hits allowed, Senga over 4.5 hits allowed (+198 DK)

In the news ...

USWNT loses in Round of 16 — We alluded to the United States women not being a smart bet this summer, and we hope you heeded our advice. The USWNT fell to Sweden Sunday morning in penalty kicks after winning each of the past two World Cups. England is the current favorite at +240, awaiting the winner of Colombia-Jamaica. Our pre-tournament pick, Australia, is still alive! The Aussies beat Denmark this morning 2-0 and will square off with the winner of France-Morocco.

Erik Karlsson traded to Penguins — The 2023 James Norris Trophy winner for top defensemen, Erik Karlsson, was traded to Pittsburgh after five seasons in San Jose. The Penguins immediately add an elite offensive defenseman, and Karlsson figures to slot in nicely feeding Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and company as the Penguins look to make it back to the postseason. Karlsson is +2000 to repeat as James Norris winner, a future we'd recommend sprinkling on. EK is well-positioned to rack up 100+ points on this team.

Carolina Panthers sign Justin Houston — Veteran edge rushers are being scooped up as we work into August, most recently four-time Pro Bowler Justin Houston signing with Carolina. Houston racked up 14 sacks over the past two seasons and slots in as some nice depth for the Panthers' pass rush. Carolina is hoping to have a successful 2023 after naming top overall pick Bryce Young as starting QB; Young is reportedly having a strong camp. The Panthers are +400 to win the NFC South.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll