MLB best bets: Sunday’s picks and predictions 4/7

Blue Jays vs. Yankees

Sunday, April 7, 1:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Over 8.5 (-108, FanDuel)

By Kenny Ducey

Luis Gil did enough during Spring Training to earn himself the final spot in the Yankees’ rotation entering the season, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the 25-year-old is past the issues that ultimately led to his demotion when he debuted three years ago.

Gil became something of a New York legend with his gaudy strikeout numbers and unhittable stuff, but he walked batters at a comical 14.7% rate in his first six starts back in 2021. He only pitched seven times in 2022 prior to an injury that cost him most of the season, but he nearly matched that walk rate before returning in A-Ball last year — you guessed it, walking 14.3% of the batters he faced in two starts.

The right-hander finished off his spring with six walks in 15 2/3 innings and issued three free passes in his first outing of 2024, producing six strikeouts to wiggle out of trouble.

I’ve written 150 words beating a dead horse, but I want you to remember this as Gil toes the slab against a team that walked at the 12th-highest clip a year ago and one that ranks fourth this season. Considering Toronto has been excellent at limiting strikeouts, too, I do think this is a bit of a pricky spot for the youngster.

On the other side of this one, the Bowden Francis experiment is not exactly going well for Toronto. They finally put him in the bullpen at 27 years old last year to positive results, but his issues as a starter once again reared their ugly head in his season debut when he coughed up seven earned runs on 10 hits, including three homers, in a brutal outing versus Houston.

Francis is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which will simply not play in Yankee Stadium. And while he’s produced above-average strikeout numbers, the Yankees’ ability to limit third strikes this year has been evident and should pay dividends against a guy who has a rough go of it any time the ball comes back in play – particularly in a hitter’s park like this.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-108) | Bet to 9 (-110)

Diamondbacks vs. Braves

Sunday, April 7, 1:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Over 9.5 (+100, DraftKings)

By Sean Paul

The Arizona Diamondbacks will finish out the weekend series against the Atlanta Braves early on Sunday as +175 moneyline underdogs. The Snakes will call on Ryne Nelson to get some outs, opposed to the wily veteran Chris Sale on the Braves' side.

The total sailed over in the first two games of the series, and I don’t expect anything different this time. We’re looking at two of the best offenses in the National League, with very shaky pitching options. That should lead to a barrage of runs.

I could see Nelson lasting four or fewer innings, leading to the Diamondbacks relying on an overworked bullpen for six or seven innings. That’s a dream scenario for Over backers.

Pick: Over 9.5 (+100)

White Sox vs. Royals

Sunday, April 7, 2:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 9 (-120, FanDuel)

By Collin Whitchurch

I'm not about to overreact to one good Alec Marsh start. The 25-year-old put up sterling results in his 2024 debut, particularly given the expectations.

Facing the juggernaut Orioles' offense, Marsh spun seven innings of one-run ball, striking out five and walking just one. That latter stat is what was most impressive, as Marsh struggled with the base on balls in his first season while bouncing between the rotation and bullpen.

However, I'm on board with him putting together at least one more quality start against the White Sox and their putrid offense. A lineup that has already struggled to score runs on this young season is now down both Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert Jr., and running out arguably sub-replacement-level bats in a handful of spots.

I also wouldn't call it an overreaction to begin buying Garrett Crochet stock after his first two starts at the MLB level. It's one thing to shut down the Tigers, but striking out eight across seven innings in his last start against the behemoth Braves was eyebrow-raising. What's been most important for Crochet — who has always had great stuff — is that he's pounding the zone, inducing chases when he's not, and has only two walks through two starts and 13 innings.

The Royals' offense isn't the one set to end Crochet's torrid start. While both bullpens are below average, I have enough faith in these starters to work deep and these offenses to continue to put together poor results that I'm confident in betting the full-game Under, which opened at 9 at a number of sportsbooks.

I would bet this down to 8.5.

Pick: Under 9 (-120) | Bet to 8.5 (-110)