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MLB best bets: AL Rookie of the Year odds 
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

MLB best bets: AL Rookie of the Year odds 

May is right around the corner — five days to be exact — and we thought it would be a good time to talk about the American League Rookie of the Year race.

We'll be honest, before the season started, we were convinced Masataka Yoshida of the Boston Red Sox was going to run away with it. We expected Yoshida to get off to a hot start after tearing up the World Baseball Classic with Team Japan, but that hasn't been the case.

And even though he's still the consensus frontrunner to win AL Rookie of the Year, two guys — Anthony Volpe and Hunter Brown — have put themselves in the mix. We'll admit it, we're pretty surprised. Not so much that Volpe and Brown are off to solid starts, but more so that Yoshida has already had his struggles. The question is are either a legit threat to win AL Rookie of the Year? Spoiler alert: the answer is yes. But who has the better shot: Volpe or Brown?

Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox (+350)
Yoshida is technically a rookie because it's his first year in MLB, but this is far from his first rodeo. Before signing with Boston, Yoshida spent seven seasons in the Nippon League just like all the other great Japanese players before him — Shohei Ohtani, Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, etc. 

Just in case you're not aware of the Nippon League, here's a brief summary. Of the four main foreign professional baseball leagues — Nippon, Mexican League, Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) and Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) — the Nippon is considered the best. Some even say it's the next best league outside of MLB. Yes, even better than Triple-A. Think of the Nippon League kind of like the in-between level of MLB and Triple-A ... like 4A or Quadruple-A, however, you want to phrase it. 

And with Yoshida holding a career slash line of .327/.421/.539/.960 in the Nippon League, we were automatically impressed. And then we saw how the bat jumped off his bat in the WBC. Even more impressed. So, if we're being completely honest, we really didn't expect Yoshida to have much, or any, April struggles. Ichiro and Matsui really didn't but Yoshida has. Does that mean he won't have a career similar to theirs or not win AL Rookie of the Year? Absolutely not. But we are convinced the race will be much closer than we initially thought. 

Yoshida homered on Wednesday and has hit safely in seven straight games after failing to record a hit in eight of his first 12 games, but before we're completely all-in again on Yoshida, we need to see him continue to produce offensively. The power really hasn't been there, granted, that could change as the weather warms up, and neither has the speed. Again, that could change rather quickly, but with a line of 3.5/1, we encourage to wait and see how Volpe and Brown continue to do before betting on Yoshida.

Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees (+500)
Volpe made major headlines back in March when manager Aaron Boone named the 21-year-old the team's Opening Day shortstop over Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Just about everyone thought it was going to Kiner-Falefa, who was the Yankees' everyday shortstop last year, but Volpe balled out in Spring Training and won the job. And then before the kid plays a single game in the big leagues people are already calling him the next Derek Jeter. Pretty unfair expectations, right? Well, maybe not. 

Volpe was one of MLB's top prospects before the season started, was named to the Futures Game and had a minor-league career slash line of .263/.376/.505/.881. Plus, he was a superb defender in the minors and had a stolen base success rate of 84%. But still, there's got to be some learning curve or early season struggles, right? 

Volpe was hitting under .200 prior to last week but has started to turn the corner. Volpe is a perfect 8-for-8 on stolen-base attempts and has hit safely in three straight games and five of his last six. He's still got a long way to go before becoming a legit threat to win AL Rookie of the Year, but he's slowly progressing. And with Aaron Judge batting behind him and showing him the ropes, expect Volpe to only get better. But before you go all-in on Volpe for AL ROY, wait another month and see how's he hitting, even if his line drops from 5/1 to 3/1 over the next month.

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros (+600)
The Astros have a track record for producing pitching, and this year is no different. Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier finished in the top three of the AL Rookie of the Year race in 2021, and 2020, respectively, and in the AL Rookie of the Year Race and 2023 is no different with Brown. Actually, it kind of is. Brown is a legit candidate to win AL Rookie of the Year and has the best value of any rookie on the market. We're not saying he's going to win, but what we are saying is out of all the AL Rookies right now, he has the best value at 6/1.

Brown is coming off his best start of the year on Wednesday, and it just happened to be against the best team in baseball in the Rays. Brown gave up just two hits and two walks and struck out a season-high eight over seven scoreless innings. Not bad. Neither is his 3-0 record and 2.37 ERA in five starts.

But should we really be all that surprised by his hot start? Maybe, maybe not. The 24-year-old was 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA in seven games (two starts) last year, so it's not like he didn't pitch well when he first got called up in 2022. But now that he's an everyday starter, he's only gotten better. Unlike Volpe, Brown really didn't dominate the minors. The right-hander struggled in his first couple of seasons before breaking out in 2022. Minor-league performance can predict major- league performance, but fortunately, Brown really figured things out in 2022 before getting called up. Here's the bottom line — we like Brown a lot, and as long as his line is north of 3/1, you should consider betting on him. But don't wait too long, because that line could drop fairly quickly. 

The Bet: Hunter Brown for AL Rookie of the Year (+600)
Bet $100 to win $600.

**All odds via Caesars Sportsbook**

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