Fork in the Road: Michael Kopech's 2024 Season Crucial for White Sox Future Outlook

The 2023 season can't be described as anything but an unmitigated disaster for Michael Kopech.

In 129.1 innings, he accumulated a ghastly -0.9 fWAR thanks to a gruesome 5.43 ERA and 6.46 FIP. The big Texan was one of, if not, the worst starting pitcher in baseball during the 2023 campaign. His 6.33 BB/9 would've ranked worst in MLB had he pitched enough innings to quality. On top of that, he allowed home runs at an alarming 2.02 HR/9 clip, which is close to a full home run higher than when he returned to the team during the 2021 season.

The walks and home runs proved to be the undoing for Kopech in many of his outings, and a point of frustration for observers of the team. Kopech, to his credit, consistently held himself accountable for his shortcomings during postgame interviews, but it didn't negate the alarming control/command issues that plagued him.

Kopech is entering his second season of arbitration, and according to Cot's Contracts, he's projected to earn about $3.05 million in 2024. The righty will have one final season of control in 2025 before heading to the open market. But if there isn't a significant turnaround in 2024, he'll likely see his time on the South Side come to an end.

Kopech's rapid decline represents a significant departure from his outlook just a couple of years ago. During the 2021 season, it looked as though he was poised to be a mainstay of the starting rotation once he built up the necessary innings base. But in each of the past two seasons, Kopech has seen a steady increase in his BB/9 while his velocity has declined from its peak during the 2021 campaign. The increased walk rate along with an inability to keep the ball in the ballpark are the two most significant areas that Kopech must address heading into the 2024 season if he is to salvage his once-promising career.

New Voice

A few weeks back, I penned a column centered around my optimism for new Senior Pitching Adviser, Brian Bannister. I highlighted a passage from the 2019 book, "The MVP Machine," that discussed Bannister's approach to player development. He's a firm believer in developing individualized plans for his pitchers instead of a "one size fits all" approach.

There was one particular section of the chapter on Bannister that I believe will be applicable to our discussion on Michael Kopech. During his time in the Boston Red Sox organization, Bannister worked closely with journeyman starter Rich Hill. At the time of his arrival in the Red Sox organization, Hill was at a bit of a career crossroads.

Hill had already spent 10 years in the bigs bouncing around several teams but never finding his footing. In one of their initial conversations, Bannister laid out a plan for Hill to focus his approach on pitching backward and utilizing his breaking ball as his primary offering. Bannister presented a plethora of data to Hill illustrating how his breaking ball was his best pitch and should be the focal point for how he attacks hitters.

With this information in hand, Hill transformed himself into a pitcher who was delivering consistent quality results. From 2015-2022, Hill pitched 788 innings of 3.32 ERA ball with 9.63 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, and 1.06 HR/9. Those are solid numbers despite the fact that Hill has had issues maintaining his health during that timeframe. But on an inning-by-inning basis, Hill was a consistently solid starting pitcher for six teams.

Will It Translate?

Could Brian Bannister's experience resurrecting the career of Rich Hill be foreshadowing for Michael Kopech? Both were highly touted prospects that had varying degrees of success at the MLB level, but neither had lived up to their promise after seeing their fair share of inconsistent performance.

I'm sure Bannister has a plan in some capacity for how he is going to unlock Kopech's potential. Whether it's a matter of altering pitch usage, sequencing, or completely re-engineering him altogether, Kopech will serve as the first initial test for Bannister in his new role with the White Sox. Partnering with pitching coach Ethan Katz, the duo will be tasked with getting Kopech back on track beginning in 2024.  

For a White Sox team featuring thin starting pitching that will only get thinner once Dylan Cease is traded, Kopech re-emerging as a viable option for this team would be vital. Bannister was successfully able to get the most out of a number of pitchers in Boston and San Francisco, and now he will have a high-profile test case on the South Side of Chicago.

Last Chance

Michael Kopech finds himself at a crossroads in his career. It's sink or swim time for him with the White Sox organization. A disastrous 2024 similar to what we saw a year ago will likely spell the end of his time with the team and further cement the Chris Sale deal as an abject failure on all fronts.

But if Kopech is able to resurrect himself under the tutelage of Brian Bannister and Ethan Katz, ala Rich Hill, the Sox may be in a position to keep him in the fold into the future as the team attempts to escape the hell of the perpetual rebuild.