Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Kevin Ginkel

Unsurprisingly, both Steamer and ZiPS expect a less-fantastic 2024 season. While these regressions might look extreme, it's important to remember that both systems take into account his less solid seasons, and will always expect a return to the mean for a player coming off a career year.

Both systems expect a similar ERA, projecting an increase of over a full run, and a slightly worse walk and strikeout rate, as well as half the aWAR he accounted for last year. 

None of these projected numbers are exceptionally poor, and the reliever is still expected to have a solid season, but neither system has faith in another breakout year for Ginkel. 

One unique outlier comes from his home runs per nine innings. Ginkel allowed, in a poor 2021 season, over two home runs per nine. However, that number dropped to an astounding low in his next two seasons, and an 0.4 HR/9 in 2023. These systems, again accounting for a return to the mean, expect him to more than double his home runs per nine, which, while a 1.02 HR/9 is certainly nothing terrible, would be a massive increase from his prior two seasons.

Our projections expect slightly less usage for the late inning reliever, and while some regression is likely due, it does look a little extreme from the initial numbers.

Why Ginkel might outperform this projection

Stellar breakout season aside, it's hard to imagine Ginkel being a lot worse than he was in 2023. He allowed just two runs over the course of June and July, and zero in the postseason, with a 14/3 K/BB in October, a microcosm of a 70/23 regular season K/BB. 

He ranked in the 89th percentile in total pitching run value with 16, while making batters whiff at a top 15% rate. He also ranked in the 79th percentile of strikeouts percentage.

But what gives Ginkel the ability to repeat his solid 2023 and exceed his initial projections comes from what's underneath. Sure, his ERA was great, as was his strikeout rate. But what was most impressive was not only his ability to strike batters out, but also the fact that he had a top 20% ground ball rate (49.7%), as well as above average numbers in hard hit and barrel rate.

He wasn't just a strikeout merchant, he was able to pitch to soft contact and get batters out in a variety of ways. As for his ERA, he backed up the solid number with a FIP of 2.86, indicating that he mostly exceeded luck with his outings. He also ranked in the top 10% of xBA (.201) and xERA (3.11).

Ginkel's success wasn't just lucky pitches, it was backed up by his calm, smart approach. While his boisterous, fiery composure on the mound might make him look like a hothead, he pitched intelligently, and that is reflected in his expected stats and numbers that lie below the surface of stats like ERA. He was almost equally good in low leverage (.175 BA against) as he was in high leverage (.182 BA against).

Ginkel was also nearly identically good against right-handed batters as he was lefties. In fact, he allowed a .185 batting average to right-handed hitters, while allowing an even lower .176 batting average to left-handers. He wasn't simply a matchup pitcher, he has the makings of an all-around elite arm, and his consistent improvement since 2021 is a good sign that he won't be in store for a regression. 

While he might not reach the lofty 2.48 ERA of 2023, he certainly has the stuff to pitch well beyond his projected regression.

Why Ginkel might underperform this projection

It's honestly difficult to find a reason why Ginkel could be significantly worse than 2023, but a regression is certainly a possibility.

Obviously, a return to the mean is likely in the cards, and it would be extremely difficult to have a season as incredible as he was in 2023. To that point, it would be surprising if he did not underperform his previous numbers.

Ginkel did, however, struggle with walks, and he had a slight tendency to have pitches get away from him and land far outside the zone. If a few batters swing at just a few less of his pitches, we could see innings start to get away from him. 

Ginkel is also another member of the two-pitch club. While he does throw an occasional sinker, he primarily relies on his fastball and slider after abandoning his changeup after the 2022 season. As with any arm that boasts a limited arsenal, batters could start to get accustomed to his stuff and make adjustments.

Additionally, 2023 was the first season in which he pitched more than 30 major league innings. We could start to see usage fatigue begin to take its toll, and there is concern from a guy who throws so many sliders at a decent velocity to be held back by a potential injury. 

His .244 BABIP was also significantly lower  in 2023 than it normally is, implying that he could have been the benefactor of a small portion of batted ball "luck." Although his other numbers might disprove that his ERA was empty calories, a decrease in said "luck" could also propel his numbers to a rockier status in 2024.

While Ginkel was an effective arm, the volatility of relievers and the extreme difficulty it would present to repeat his 2023 season could set him up to look significantly less effective in 2024, especially if his control and strikeout rate take even the slightest dive.

Summary

The D-backs elite set-up man is projected a return to the mean. While both systems expect a significant decrease in numbers, he's still projected to have a solid season. It wouldn't be difficult for the reliever to outperform his projections due to his underlying abilities and ability to be tough in crucial innings, but we have yet to see more than one full season out of Ginkel, and he could be due for a sharp domino-effect regression if some of his less mainstream numbers decline in quality in 2024.