Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez' projections show him taking a step back in his ERA and aWAR, but still striking out batters at a nearly identical rate and walking batters at a slightly lesser rate. Notably, although his ERA looks to be over 50 points higher, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) shows a 14 point decrease.

Steamer's projection model is stingier with E-Rod's stats, expecting a nearly 4.00 ERA for the left-hander, but predicts him to be a more dependable inning-eater, projecting him to pitch 177 innings, which would be the second most in his career.

ZiPS is projecting much fewer innings (138), but predicts a 3.65 ERA for the veteran. Both systems expect a significant increase in home runs per nine innings, but still allows for a decent 1.05 average. 

While both systems generally air on the side of regression when a player is coming off a career season, the veteran lefty is expected to be a solid arm by all metrics. Most stats remain somewhat close to his 2023 season, and even if his ERA does shoot up above 2023's total, he looks to hover around or under 4.00, which would be a much-welcome addition to the middle of the D-backs rotation.

Both systems expect Rodriguez' K/9 to increase slightly, sitting just under 9.00, but Steamer predicts 20+ point increase in opponent batting average (.249) and 15 point increase in WHIP (1.30).

Why Rodriguez might outperform this projection

Environment does matter. Coming from a club that struggled on both sides of the mound, Rodriguez could see a benefit in the increased defensive ability of the D-backs. His 3.90 FIP is an encouraging aspect of this projection, as it gives way to the possibility that his ERA could potentially be lower than projected due to the D-backs' exceptional defense. 

Statcast offered him a pitching run value of 18 (92nd percentile), and his fastball, off-speed and breaking pitches all ranked in the 77th percentile or higher. His stuff is versatile, and his ability to utilize the entire zone makes him a tough matchup for both right and left-handed batters. Considering he relies more on command than velocity, there's a good chance he remains able to manipulate batters without seeing too much of a decrease in results.

He was especially devastating against left-handed hitters, allowing just a .183 batting average. However, while he allowed a much higher batting average against righties (.240), his ERA facing them was lower than facing lefties, sitting at 2.62. While the lefty-righty matchup was a factor in his ability to allow hits and baserunners, matchups did not greatly affect his ability to keep runners from scoring.

Rodriguez has pitched over 200 innings once, and in that season with the Boston Red Sox he had his second-best career numbers. While health has been an issue, he has shown the ability to pitch well, even through a heavy workload. Throughout his career, he's held his ERA relatively consistent, never pitching below 3.30, and never pitching above 4.74. While ERA isn't everything when evaluating pitching, its consistency is very encouraging that he can maintain that level, and his breakout 2023 could be a sign of his best days coming.

Rodriguez will be able to settle into a mid-rotation role, with a likely increase in both defense and offensive run support. Working with pitching coach Brent Strom could allow him to unlock the excellent potential he showed in the 2023 season. While he might not be able to outperform his stellar 2023 numbers, there's a good chance he won't regress to the point that his projections expect.

Why Rodriguez might underperform his projection

Rodriguez is entering his ninth MLB season, and is 31 years old. He's struggled with injuries and health-related issues in his career, and rarely eclipsed 150 innings. Coming off a career-best ERA by over 50 points, it can be difficult to imagine Rodriguez pitching to that same level again, and he has finished with a 4.00 or worse ERA four times in his career.

Rodriguez dominated his divisional matchups, pitching to a 1.19 ERA and allowing a .197 average against AL Central opponents in nine starts. However, where the concern did lie for his 2023 numbers was in his ability to pitch outside the division. The AL Central was an exceptionally weak division, with a .442 overall win %. 

Rodriguez recorded a 4.68 ERA against out-of-division opponents, significantly underperforming his season total. His underlying pitching metrics all hover around or below average according to Savant, and his velocity and movement will likely only decrease in value with age. 

While it's not to say the signing will become the next Bumgarner disaster, it will be hard for Rodriguez to perform up to the same standard as last season, and we could see an ERA north of 4.00. Since his pitching metrics are a bit discouraging even with good results, he could also struggle to strike batters out and prevent solid contact.

Summary

Rodriguez' projections are relatively strong, despite predicting a regression from his career best season. If he stays around his projections, even if he doesn't outperform them or pitch like he did in 2023, he will be a solid rotation piece for the D-backs. Considering the pitching struggles Arizona experienced in 2023, even an ERA in the low-4.00 range would be a welcome change, especially from a left-hander.