Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projection: RHP Bryce Jarvis

Jarvis is expected to be a slightly below-average pitcher in terms of run prevention, with a projected 4.48 ERA and 4.56 FIP in 60 innings. The lower innings total breaks down as roughly 17 innings in five starts and 43 innings in 25 relief appearances. Based on that trend, the projection implies Jarvis will be asked to be a reliever when on the major league roster and possibly in shorter bursts. If that is indeed the case, we may see him trickle down from low leverage to higher leverage situations as the season progresses. He has shown the ability to recover quickly from outings in relief, although hasn't been asked to pitch in back-to-back games and only twice has pitched with one day of rest. 

Why Jarvis Might Overperform This Projection

For young pitchers like Jarvis, the question is opportunity and improvement. The more improvement he shows on the mound, the more opportunities he'll get. While there's a strong chance he'll have to wait his turn to begin the season, pitching injuries and bad performances will give Jarvis a chance to pitch in the big leagues as he continues to do what the organization asks while in Reno. 

The easiest way to beat the projection is he makes the improvements necessary to earn a chance to stick in the starting rotation. Jarvis has solid stuff, with a mid 90s fastball that plays below its measured velocity and two plus secondary pitches. On days he can spot his fastball, it's enough to cruise through a start, but when he can't, his outings have the potential to be short and uncompetitive. He fits the profile of a "Five and Dive" starter, who typically only sees a lineup two times through and averages around five innings per start. Considering how starts are getting shorter, that's not an issue.

Another method is he makes it as a reliever. The D-backs have plenty of fringe starter types in the organization, especially on the 40-man roster. The D-backs already have nine starting pitchers on the 40-man roster but only three of them have more than 30 career starts entering 2024: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez. One way to sift through this potential logjam is to convert some of these pitchers into relievers where in his words, "let it eat more." With a fastball in the 96-98 MPH range, two quality secondary pitches, and the right type of makeup, he projects well as a back of the bullpen arm.

Why Jarvis Might Underperform This Projection

Improvement will create more opportunities, while the lack thereof will have the opposite effect. Jarvis' opportunities not only depends on how he performs, but also the health of pitchers who enter the year higher up on the depth chart. Given the exceptional volatility of young pitching, it won't be a lack of opportunities that prevents Jarvis from beating the projection.

He certainly has the stuff and ability to succeed as a reliever. However the main question mark besides overall command of his arsenal is a fastball that is very hittable despite averaging 95.3 MPH. It doesn't generate a lot of induced vertical break, at just 14.1 inches. Combine that with a lack of extension and deception, the pitch becomes very hittable when thrown over the heart of the plate. That becomes an issue if hitters are able to lay off his slider and changeup, forcing him back into the zone.

Summary

Jarvis is a major league-ready arm that needs to get reps against big league hitters. By using him a long reliever for much of the season, that would open up more opportunities for him at the big league level. However, a fastball that lacks presence despite averaging 95+ MPH is a concern about his ability to stick as a starter. In terms of opportunities, the projection seems very fair for Jarvis as the bullpen is a spot where he can thrive.