D-backs Got More Expensive But Did They Get Better?

The Diamondbacks have added nearly $10 million in costs yet received no increase to their on paper win projection. How is that possible?  Simply put, it's because Suarez does not project well on paper.  The projections see him as producing just 1.6 WAR in 144 games, 623 plate appearances.  This may seem extremely low to some, but it's important to look a little deeper into his projection. 

Over his last three seasons Suarez has produced 5.7 Baseball Reference WAR and 7.1 Fangraphs WAR. Taking the average of these two you arrive at 6.4 aWAR, or an average of 2.1 WAR per season.  When projecting forward,  you must apply an aging curve. Suarez will be 32 next season. That curve will not only reduce the projected rate of production, but also reduce the playing time.  That results in him coming in about a half WAR less than the average of his last seasons average.  

But wait, isn't that still better than last year's production at third base for the Diamondbacks? Most definitely, as the D-backs third basemen produced zero WAR in aggregate last season. The projections looking forward to 2024 included playing time at third base for other players however. One example is Geraldo Perdomo, who was projected to see  some playing time at third base next year. 

While he doesn't hit for power, Perdomo's on base, fielding, and base running abilities actually add up to a higher rate of WAR production per PA than Suarez'.  Perdomo's playing time is reduced by at least 50-60 plate appearances with the addition of Suarez. His WAR projection was reduced  0.2 accordingly. Obviously that reduction comes off the team's total projection.  These kinds of dynamics ripple throughout the projection spreadsheets and have to be taken into account. 

The big question for Suarez and the Diamondbacks will be whether or not he can get back to the level he was at in 2022. That  is the only season in his last four in which he's been an above average hitter.  OPS+ is a metric that normalizes On Base Plus Slugging percentage to the league average and adjusts for park factors.  100 equals league average.  Since 2020, Suarez park-adjusted OPS+ has been 100, 82, 129, & 101 for a four year average of 103, or just slightly above average. 

The Diamondbacks were able to buy low on Suarez in the hopes that he might rebound for at least one season to a previous higher level. Had he been coming off a better season, he would not have been obtainable for the players just traded for him. (Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala). Mike Hazen acknowledged this reality the day of the trade when he said "Sometimes it's not always available to you when guys are coming off career seasons"

Some people might have the expectation that  Suarez will receive a homer bump due to the misconception that Chase Field is a more homer friendly ballpark than T-Mobile in Seattle.  This hasn't been true for quite some time, specifically since the introduction of the humidor in 2018. 

Chase Field yields more hits overall, and specifically doubles and triples, than the average major league park. But the home run park factor at Chase is actually one of the lowest in the major leagues, and a good deal lower than T-Mobile Park. Park factors also use the 100 scale where 100 equals league average. The three-year rolling average HR Factor for Chase is 84, or 26th in MLB.  T-Mobile Park has a factor of 99, 18th in the league, and Suarez' former home, Great American Ballpark is the most homer friendly park at 131.

This isn't to say that Suarez can't produce a higher homer total than he did last year, when he hit 22 in 162 games. If he does it just won't be because of the ballpark helping him. If anything it will be the opposite.  Michael McDermott showed us this morning that Suarez will need to reduce his swing and miss in the strike zone if he's to see a rebound. That is by far the biggest factor. Whether that comes in 2024 is a bet the D-backs were willing to make.