Astros set to activate key starting pitcher on Sunday

Astros manager Joe Espada informed members of the club’s beat, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that left-hander Framber Valdez will be activated off the injured list to start Sunday’s game against the Rockies in Mexico City. Rome also reports that right-hander J.P. France will be optioned in a corresponding move.

The news is obviously great for Valdez personally. He and the club got a scare when he landed on the injured list earlier this month due to soreness in his throwing elbow. It’s always a concerning element when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured but a number of high-profile pitchers requiring season-ending surgery this year only heightened the worry.

Thankfully, it seems Valdez avoided a really serious injury. He started throwing again shortly after being placed on the IL and will now be quickly activated, just barely over the 15-day minimum and without requiring a rehab assignment.

The news is also great for the team, as the Astros have been scrambling to fill their rotation all season along. They came into they year knowing they would be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, since they each underwent significant elbow surgeries last year and won’t be available until midseason at the earliest. 

But the rotation was further thinned out during spring training when Justin Verlander and José Urquidy each landed on the injured list.

Valdez then landed on the injured list a few weeks ago, further depleting the rotation mix. Verlander returned to health and rejoined the club about a week ago, but then Cristian Javier swapped places with him, landing on the IL due to neck discomfort. Now that Valdez is back, he’ll slot into the rotation next to Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.

France being sent down registers as a surprise. He’s certainly not out to an amazing start to the season, with a 7.46 earned run average through five starts. But he did quite well last year, with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings. He may have been challenged to maintain those kinds of results going forward, as his 17.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average last year, but he’s actually increased his strikeout rate to 18.2% this year.

His struggles in the early going could perhaps be a bit based on luck. His .289 batting average on balls in play last year has ticked up to .321 this season, while his strand rate has gone from 76.7% to 62.2%. His 5.52 FIP and 4.95 SIERA both suggest he deserved to have slightly better results than what he actually got.

Beyond looking at France in a vacuum, it’s also surprising to see him as the corresponding move when considering the other options. Both Brown and Arrighetti still have options and each has allowed more earned runs than innings pitched this year. Brown had a 9.68 ERA through five outings while Arrighetti has a 10.97 ERA through three.

A deeper look perhaps sheds some light on the decision, however. Arrighetti has struck out 25.9% of batters faced, far more than France. His 12.1% walk rate is certainly on the high side but he’s also been victimized by a .500 BABIP and 52.8% strand rate. His 3.81 FIP and 4.04 SIERA are actually quite serviceable.

Brown’s rate stats for the year aren’t amazing but his numbers are also heavily skewed by one nightmare outing in which he allowed nine runs on 11 hits against the Royals while only recording two outs. Perhaps the Astros are giving him the benefit of the doubt since he had a 26.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 52.4% ground ball rate last year. Perhaps the club will speak on their reasoning in the coming days.

The diminished rotation is a huge reason why the Astros are out to its worst start in years. They are currently 7-19, the worst club in the American League apart from the White Sox. Their starters have a collective 5.21 ERA, which is better than just the White Sox and Rockies out of the 30 MLB clubs. 

Valdez has a 3.38 ERA in his career and should help stabilize the group as long as he’s pitching like his usual self. If Javier and Urquidy are able to come back soon, that could further strengthen things.

Elsewhere on the roster, the team is allowed a 27th man for the Mexico City Series, though it has to be a position player. Per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros will have first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage as their extra body.

It’s unclear if the Astros intend to have Cabbage around for just the games in Mexico or a longer stay, but it will perhaps be a situation worth monitoring since the club has been getting atrocious production from the first base spot this year. 

Earlier this week, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at the struggles of José Abreu, who is now hitting .065/.132/.081 on the year. Jon Singleton has started in Abreu’s place a few times lately. His line of .244/.326/.293 is far better than Abreu’s but is still below average, translating to a 88 wRC+.

Cabbage has generally hit a ton in the minors but also had his share of strikeout problems, a trend that has continued this year. Acquired from the Angels in the offseason, Cabbage has struck out in 31.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances this year and also walked in 23.1% of them. He has three home runs and is hitting .271/.440/.486 for a 137 wRC+ while also stealing seven bases. 

That’s pretty similar production to his time in Triple-A last year, when he hit 30 home runs, stole 32 bases and struck out 30% of the time.