Are We Underrating the Value of Bryce Elder?

The hot start from Bryce Elder in 2023 set unrealistic expectations for him amongst the fanbase. Taking a step back, he's still very valuable to the Atlanta Braves. 

Everyone knows it was a tale of two halves in 2023 for Bryce Elder, with a 2.97 ERA in 18 starts before the All-Star break where he was named an All-Star...but a 5.11 ERA in 13 starts after the break and a disastrous third inning in Game 3 of the NLDS. 

The turnaround for Elder happened at the end of 2022, when the Braves strategically used him against struggling offenses. 

In his last five starts of 2022, he went at least 5 innings in each and gave up 1 run or less in four of those starts. 

That carried over into 2023, and ultimately he had a 22-start stretch in which he went at last 5 innings and gave up 2 earned runs or less in 17 of those starts!

In his final 14 starts of 2023, he went 5 innings nine times and only held opponents to 2 runs or less six times. 

If you change your view of Elder as a fourth or fifth starter, which is what he is, then perhaps those numbers don't look quite as bad. 

But let's take a look at what made Elder so good for a 22-start stretch and so bad at the end of 2023 and try to set realistic expectations going forward. 

Why Elder Was So Good

Some of what made Elder so good during that stretch was the competition he was facing.

During that 22-game stretch he faced the Marlins five times and the Nationals three times. Thirty-six percent of his starts were against the 19th and 21st-ranked offenses in OPS last year -- that helps. 

In total, 14-of-22 (64%) starts came against teams in the bottom half of OPS in 2023. 

To his credit, during that stretch, he also blanked the Houston Astros for 6 innings, held the Los Angeles Dodgers to 1 run over 6 innings, and shut out the Philadelphia Phillies - in Philly - for 7 innings. 

Elder was doing something during this stretch that made him so effective -- it wasn't just taking advantage of inferior offenses. 

During that stretch, Elder held opponents to a .219 average while carrying a BABIP of .265. 

That .265 BABIP would have ranked as the fifth lowest among qualified starters in 2023, putting him in the mix with guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Luis Castillo. 

A typical BABIP for a pitcher is going to sit between .290 and .300, but Elder has carried a low BABIP in his short career so maybe we should expect .275-.280. 

Many forget Elder got the nod to begin the 2022 season and was great in his first start. One key takeaway from that start: he didn't walk anybody. But in his next three starts before getting demoted, he walked a total of 14 batters in 13.1 innings. 

During his great stretch, he managed to keep his walk rate at a respectable 7.2 percent, which would put him in the 68th percentile of all pitchers. 

When you're limiting the walks and are extremely lucky with balls in play, that's typically going to lead to great results. 

Another thing Elder did well was keep the ball in the yard with just a 0.6 HR/9, which would have been the second-best among qualified starters in 2023. 

As a primarily sinkerball pitcher you would hope to see a low HR/9, but 0.6 is unsustainable. Even Logan Webb had a HR/9 of 0.83 while boasting the highest groundball percentage in baseball. 

Something else Elder excelled at during this stretch was leaving runners on base. He had a LOB% of 84.2 percent, which would have ranked second best in 2023 (only behind Blake Snell who had an incredibly lucky 2023 that ended with an NL Cy Young award.)

A lot of things went Elder's way during this stretch, but he also helped himself by not walking as many batters, limiting damage, and keeping the ball in the yard (likely due to better location of his pitches). 

Why Elder Was So Bad

In those final 14 starts of 2023 opponents hit .264 against him with a BABIP of .278. While it's just a 13-point jump in BABIP, it was a 45-point jump in actual batting average -- that's a rough regression. 

As for the walks, his BB% went up to 10.4 percent in the second-half last year, which would put him in the 22nd percentile. 

Mix those two things in with the fact that his HR/9 went from 0.6 in that 22-game stretch to 1.4 in those last 14 starts and you can see where the troubles come from. 

While he did a masterful job of getting out of trouble during his hot streak, his LOB% dropped from 84.2% to 62.6% -- going from a number that would have been second-best in all of baseball to second-worst. 

You truly couldn't have a season of more extremes than Bryce Elder had in 2023. 

Looking at the heat map, nothing really stands out in terms of location. He still mostly threw the sinker down-and-in to righties and the slider down-and-away. 

He did get punished a lot more during the bad stretch on sinkers left up. Batters hit .263 on sinkers up-and-in (to righties) compared to just .077 in his good stretch. 

That came with big slug numbers as well. Of the 18 sinkers Edler threw middle-up in his final 14 starts, batters slugged .444 against those pitches. 

While his slider was overall a dominant pitch for him in 2023, it got punished in the second-half when he left it middle-down. Of the 41 sliders thrown in that location batters slugged .463. 

Simply put, in those final 14 starts he wasn't getting away with anything middle-up or middle-down. 

Part of that likely had to do with the fact he was falling behind in counts more often. Of the 12 sliders he through middle-down in the second-half when behind, batters slugged .583. 

In his 22 game stretch he threw 30 sliders middle-down and batters slugged just .100. 

It's even more wild when you look at the sinker. During his hot streak, he threw 22 sinkers at the top of the zone when he was behind in the count and didn't give up a single hit. 

But over his last 14 starts, he threw 22 sinkers at the top of the zone and he gave up a slug of .250 (up-and-away to righties), .714 (middle-up), and .364 (up-and-in) when behind in the count. 

Did it Matter Who Caught Him? 

It really did not seem to matter who caught him in 2023 -- he had his ups-and-downs with both, and both Sean Murphy and Travis d'Arnaud are elite catch framers. 

Here are the numbers for 2023: 

Murphy: 6.1 IP/0 ER, 5.1 IP/3 ER, 6 IP/0 ER, 5.1 IP/4ER, 7 IP/0 ER, 5 IP/2 ER, 6 IP/2 ER, 7.1 IP/1 ER, 5.1 IP/5 ER, 6 IP/1 ER, 6 IP/2 ER, 6 IP/4 ER, 6.2 IP/2 ER, 2.2 IP/5 ER, 4.1 IP/7 ER, 7 IP/0 ER, 6 IP/4 ER, 6 IP/1 ER, 3.2 IP/4 ER, 3.2 IP/5 ER

Total: 20 G, 111.2 IP/52 ER (4.19 ERA)

TDA: 6 IP/0 ER, 6 IP/1 ER, 7 IP/0 ER, 3.1 IP/7 ER, 6 IP/2 ER, 7 IP/1 ER, 5 IP/5 ER, 5.1 IP/1 ER, 7 IP/2 ER, 5 IP/4 ER

Total: 10 G, 57.2 IP/23 ER (3.59 ERA)

Tromp: 5.1 IP/1 ER

For whatever it's worth, d'Arnaud is who caught him in Game 3 of the NLDS when he gave up 6 earned runs on 5 hits and 1 walk over 2.2 innings. 

So What is Bryce Elder? 

One of the biggest questions for Braves fans this offseason is who Bryce Elder will be going forward. 

The simple answer is to say he's somewhere in the middle of his 22-game hot stretch and his terrible 14 game sample to end 2023. 

But what does he need to do in order to reach that potential of a third/fourth starter and become a mainstay in the starting rotation going forward? 

Again, the answer is pretty simple -- he has to avoid falling behind in counts and keep the sinker down in the zone. 

Despite the ups-and-downs of 2023, he finished with three pitches that had positive run values (according to Baseball Savant). One trend you can see pretty easily through 2023 is hitters stopped chasing his sinker. It maxed out at a chase rate of 32.7 percent in June and then declined the next three months to just 18.6 percent in September. 

Despite that, the chase rate on his slider actually went up from 32.9 percent to start the year to 42.4 percent to end. 

But the key is getting ahead with that sinker to setup the chase on the slider. 

His strike-rate on the sinker last year was just 62 percent -- below the league average strike-rate for sinkers of 66.1 percent. He has to be able to land that pitch on the edge of the strike zone more consistently. 

The groundball rate on his sinker also peaked at 66.7 percent in June and then declined to 46.2 percent the final two months. 

His change-up can also be a very useful pitch and shouldn't be ignored. It got the highest percentage of groundballs at 64.2 percent. 

How he succeeds: The path to Bryce Elder being a good pitcher is being able to land the sinker for strikes on the inside (and preferably down) and then either getting a chase on the slider from righties or surprising hitters with a 4-seam fastball at the top of the zone. 

For lefties, he has to have the confidence to bust them inside with that sinker and then get them on the change-up down-and-away. 

The problem is, it all relies on being able to command his pitches. He's way too predictable when he falls behind in the count and his fastball velocity is not good enough to get away with pitches over the middle of the plate. 

Elder also relies on good infield defense behind him and the Braves didn't help much in that regard last year, as Orlando Arcia was the only infielder with a positive fielding run value in 2023 (according to Savant). 

The right side of the infield was particularly bad. 

With the variance of batted ball luck, there will be plenty of ups-and-downs from Bryce Elder in his career. 

The biggest key for Elder is giving the team innings. Last year he went at least 5 innings in 84 percent of his starts. Even if that number dips to 75 percent it would still be solid production from a back of the rotation starter. 

Is Bryce Elder someone I want starting Game 3 in a playoff series? No. But over the course of a 162-game season, he brings a ton of value as someone who can give you length and keep the team in the game. 

His FIP last year was 4.42 and that feels about right for the type of pitcher Elder will be -- someone with a low-to-mid fours ERA. 

There's a chance Elder doesn't even begin the year in the starting rotation -- he'll have to earn that spot back. 

But either way, he still brings a ton of value to this team going forward and shouldn't be discarded because your expectations of him got skewed. 

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