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After another early playoff exit for the Milwaukee Brewers, the offseason has been filled with unexpected moves for the savvy franchise. The Milwaukee Brewers made one of the most surprising signings of the offseason when they signed Rhys Hoskins on a two-year, $34 million contract, with an opt-out after the first year and the option for a third year.
This contract is far from the headline-grabbing deals totaling in the hundreds of millions for Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But for the Brewers, this is the highest yearly salary the team has ever given to an outside free agent — surpassing the average $16 million that Lorenzo Cain earned annually for Milwaukee.
A little over a week later the Brewers continued to surprise by trading away ace Corbin Burnes. The former Cy Young winner was not as dominant last year, but after reaching arbitration it seemed as if Burnes would stay put for the final season of his Brewers contract. Instead, the move keeps Milwaukee in playoff purgatory — too good to tank but unlikely to challenge the league’s elites.
With Spring Training beginning this week as pitchers and catchers report, here is one big prediction for the Brewers this season.
The Brewers get the most out of the back end of their starting rotation
A year ago, the Brewers had one of the most fearsome starting rotations in baseball. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff were dueling aces while Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley formed a mean three-four combo. Add in Adrian Houser or Aaron Ashby as the fifth starter and that is an intimidating quartet. But now Burnes, Woodruff, and Houser are gone while Ashby is still recovering from injury. This leaves Peralta, Wiley, and a mountain of question marks.
New signing Jakob Junis should slot in as the number three starter. The righty had a career-best 3.87 ERA in 86 innings pitched last year for the San Francisco Giants while functioning as a multi-inning swingman. Junis has a nasty slider and offered a career-best 10 strikeouts per nine innings in 2023 while maintaining a low walk rate. Junis’ slider had the 11th best Stuff+ (which calculates the nastiness and efficacy of a pitch compared to those of other MLB pitchers) among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched in 2023. The veteran could easily have a sub-4.00 in 2024 ERA while pitching twice as many innings.
The rest of the Milwaukee rotation is an even bigger uncertainty. Aaron Ashby is back after missing 2023 with injury but will he still have his swing-and-miss stuff? Colin Rea exceeded expectations as an inning-eater, boasting a 4.55 ERA behind a fastball worth seven runs in 2023. He will likely be the fourth or fifth starter for Milwaukee. Other options include Joe Ross — who hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2021 —D.L Hall (acquired in the Corbin Burnes trade), and Robert Gasser, who has yet to make his MLB debut. Even for the Brewers Ross is a risky reclamation product and Hall is also being considered for a spot in the bullpen.
Which one of these pitchers could be the next Julio Tehran and come out of nowhere and post a respectable 4.41 on the year? While difficult to predict, all of these back-end pitchers have potential. Gasser struck out 11 batters per nine innings at Triple-A last year while fellow young lefty Hall posted a similar rate at the MLB level. What is certain is the Brewers have a history of getting the most out of no-name pitchers. Even with the rotation far from set, Brewers fans should be confident with the production they will get from the back end of the rotation.
More must-reads:
- Orioles to activate key starter from injured list this week
- Braves two-time All-Star addresses future with team
- The 'Active MLB strikeout leaders' quiz
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