10 MLB players primed for regression in 2019

Every March, news outlets and baseball prognosticators utilize air time and column inches to try to predict MLB's next big thing. Which hitter can transition from a solid role player to an All-Star? Which pitcher is likely to go from being an average arm to a front line starter? What minor league veteran may finally thrive with a new opportunity? 

But rarely is it ever discussed the other way around. Nobody likes to point out how an offensive player was exceedingly lucky or that a pitcher's ability to prevent runs was not necessarily sustainable. Here at Yardbarker, we did some digging and found 10 MLB players primed for regression in 2019. Let's take a look at the list.

1. C.J. Cron 1B Minnesota Twins

The former Angels first-round pick had seemingly peaked in L.A. as a solid but unspectacular power threat, and his original team ultimately traded him to Tampa Bay during spring training last year. Joining a new organization really appeared to re-energize the veteran, as he promptly delivered easily the best season of his career. In just over 500 at-bats, the 29-year-old launched 30 home runs (almost doubling his previous career high) while also setting new personal bests in RBI (74), doubles (28), total bases (247), SLG percentage (.493) and OPS (.816). Remarkably, the heavily analytics-driven Rays organization designated him for assignment just before Thanksgiving, and while the Twins were thrilled to add him for nothing, it's fair to wonder why Tampa Bay would have let him go. 

In Minnesota, Cron will get a legitimate shot to duplicate last season's success, but the Twins have high expectations and several other first base options in camp, namely Marwin Gonzalez, Tyler Austin and Lucas Duda. If the right-handed slugger finds himself in any sort of prolonged slump, Minnesota wouldn't hesitate to look in another direction. Even if he doesn't, the presence of all the veterans on this team makes it unlikely he'll receive another 500 at-bats, and thus the power numbers could be headed for a dive.

2. Mike Clevinger SP Cleveland Indians

Cleveland's rotation is home to several bigger names, so the 28-year-old Clevinger has been able to fly by mostly under the radar since becoming a full-time starter during the 2017 season. Last year the right-hander enjoyed by far the best campaign of his career, making 32 starts and going 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA. His peripherals were excellent as well, as he finished with a 1.16 WHIP, .223 batting average against and 207 strikeouts in an even 200 innings. The Jacksonville, Florida native will, in all likelihood, be a reliable starter for the Indians again in 2019, but several things jump off the screen as concerns for potential regression. He allowed a pretty high 21 home runs last season, most of which, fortunately for him, were solo shots and did not do a great deal of damage to his ERA. He also was able to induce 15 double play ground balls to erase base runners, a number that really helped bring his WHIP down. But perhaps most concerning is the two-season jump from 155.2 innings to 200, well passed the recommended 30 or fewer increase doctors usually advise as a way to cut down on arm injuries.

3. Kevin Gausman SP Atlanta Braves

The former Orioles first-round pick had spent his entire career navigating through the difficult American League East in unspectacular fashion, boasting a career ERA well over four and failing to emerge as anything more than a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. That changed in a big way after he was shipped to Atlanta at the trade deadline. In 10 starts for the Braves down the stretch, the veteran worked to a 2.87 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP while allowing only 15 extra base hits in 59.2 innings. It's important to note, however, that two of those 10 outings came against a bad Marlins team that in September resembled more of a minor league squad. And you'd have to imagine clubs like the Mets, Phillies and Nationals will get a better bead on him as they see him more often.

4. Luke Voit 1B New York Yankees

I don't think I can ever remember a baseball player becoming a cult hero in such short order the way Voit did in the Bronx last summer. In 132 at-bats for the Yankees, the minor league veteran hit .333 with 14 home runs, surpassing New York's longtime "first baseman of the future" Greg Bird on the depth chart and playing a prominent role on one of the American League's best teams. The Missouri State product did struggle a bit in the playoffs though, and while he was obviously one of the game's best stories last year, Hall of Famers wouldn't be able to sustain that level of production over the course of a full season.

5. Enrique Hernandez IF/OF Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles' play everywhere super utilityman was one of the most valuable players in baseball last season, as his ability to play literally every position on the field gave manager Dave Roberts a dynamic bench option available to be double switched into the game anywhere, at any time. At the plate, the Puerto Rico native was not fazed by the defensive instability, delivering easily the best season of his career. In just over 400 at-bats he hit .256 while setting new career highs in homers (21), RBI (52), runs (67), hits (103) and total bases (189). His 21 long balls were particularly surprising, as he'd contributed only 28 in parts of four seasons prior to 2018. While it's possible he's been learning about launch angle from teammate Justin Turner, it's also just as probable the power numbers come back to Earth in '19.

6. Jared Hughes RP Cincinnati Reds

Hughes has been a valuable relief pitcher for three NL Central teams during his career, but he's never been better than he was in his first season in Cincinnati. In 72 appearances, the righty delivered a 1.94 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP in a career-high 78.2 innings while holding the opposition to a stingy .212 batting average and serving up only four home runs all year. That said, while the 32-year-old Long Beach State product has been a good setup man for a long time, he'd never pitched like an All-Star before. With year-to-year relief pitching fickle enough already, I'd say it's fair to expect him to turn in an ERA closer to his 2.69 career mark in 2019 — which would still make him one of the better relievers in the National League.

7. Francisco Cervelli C Pittsburgh Pirates

The popular Pittsburgh backstop was well on his way to having the best season of his professional career in '18 before his campaign was unfortunately completely undone by a June concussion. At the time of his injury, the veteran had already blasted 11 long balls and driven in 43 runs, and while he did come back, he missed time again with post-concussion symptoms and was able to hit only one more homer and drive in just 14 more runs the rest of the way. It would've been interesting to see where Cervelli could have ended up last year without the untimely injury, but he'd also never hit more than seven big flies in a single season. Given his past history and the worrisome lingering effects from what happened to him last year, as much as I'm rooting for him to rebound fully, the odds seem stacked against the 33-year-old performing the way he did early in 2018.

8. Trevor Story SS Colorado Rockies

Story made quite the year-to-year jump between '17 and '18, as while he had already been a productive major leaguer, last season he morphed into one of the best players in the sport. In 598 at-bats, the Irving, Texas native hit .291 with 37 home runs and 108 RBI while adding 42 doubles, getting on base at a .348 clip, making the All-Star Team and even winning a Silver Slugger Award. The numbers were staggering after a previous season in which the 26-year-old hit only .239 with 24 homers. So which Story can we expect moving forward? In all likelihood somewhere in between. The young shortstop is obviously incredibly talented and buoyed by playing in hitter-friendly Coors Field but he still does strike out an awful lot, and asking him to repeat his dominant 2018 campaign may be a bit much.

9. Cole Hamels SP Chicago Cubs

Similarly to previously mentioned Gausman, the veteran southpaw was in the midst of a disappointing season in 2018 before a trade to a contending National League team served as a lifeline. In 12 starts for the Cubs down the stretch, the 35-year-old was beyond brilliant, pitching to a 2.36 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP in 76.1 innings while striking out 74 batters and allowing the opposition to hit only .226 against him. He threw the 17th complete game of his tremendous career in a dominant August outing against the Reds and tossed a pair of scoreless innings in Chicago's wild-card game loss to Colorado. But for all the success Hamels enjoyed down the stretch, it's worth pointing out that the San Diego native hadn't pitched even close to that level since 2014 while he was still in Philly, and expecting that type of performance over the course of a full season is unrealistic.

10. Jacob deGrom SP New York Mets

In a weird way deGrom's presence on this list is actually somewhat of a compliment to the dynamic right-hander. The Stetson product's 2018 season was one of the best by a starting pitcher in baseball history, as in 32 starts he turned in a mind-boggling 1.70 ERA in 217 innings. His 0.91 WHIP, .196 batting average against and 269 strikeouts all ranked fourth or better in the big leagues, and the 30-year-old was deservedly named the National League's Cy Young winner. With all of that said, deGrom's numbers were so good that he could absorb some regression across the board and still be a Cy Young candidate at year's end. And in all probability that is what will occur, as expecting anyone to pitch like he did in 2018 would be completely impractical.