Here are the chances Thomas makes Ryder Cup team

Justin Thomas reacts after making a birdie on the seventh hole during the second round of the 3M Open golf tournament. Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Here are the chances Justin Thomas makes the U.S. Ryder Cup team

By Chelena Goldman | Last updated 7/31/23

Things are getting more dire for Justin Thomas, as his missed cut at the 3M Open jeopardizes two events in his future: The chance to compete in the FedEx Cup playoffs and the call to play on the U.S. Ryder Cup team.

The 30-year-old was thought to be a shoo-in to make Zach Johnson's squad earlier in the year. But now Thomas sits outside of the top-six automatic qualifying spots and, after missing the cut in five of his last seven starts, it's hard to say whether Johnson wants to use one of his six captain's picks to put Thomas on the team.

Sportsbooks may not post odds for these types of things, but we couldn't help but wonder: What are the chances Justin Thomas makes the Ryder Cup team despite his lackluster season?

⚙️ Justin Thomas is back grinding on the practice putting green after missing the cut at TPC Twin Cities #3MOpen

pic.twitter.com/9liN7EW6ID
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) July 29, 2023

According to Data Golf, Thomas has an 18.8% chance of making the U.S. Ryder Cup team. (That percentage is based on different simulations involving skill level at their age and skill in former Ryder Cup competitions.) Convert that into American odds, and Thomas is listed at roughly 9-2 to make the team, or +450 on the money line.

Those may not be the best odds, but there is still that slight chance that Thomas can make the team as one of Johnson's picks.

Here are the updated U.S. Ryder Cup standings following the Open.

Top six auto-qualify, and ZJ has six picks. There are four events left to earn points ($1,000 = 1 point at the 3M, Wyndham, Memphis and BMW). After that, the standings are locked.

What's your biggest takeaway? pic.twitter.com/OLpkSDJGEU
— Kyle Porter (@KylePorterCBS) July 24, 2023

The U.S. Ryder Cup team is still projected to win the big event at Marco Simone Golf Club in September, with DraftKings listing Johnson's team as the -190 favorite. Those odds could of course change once the teams are completely assembled, and one would think that adding a player with Thomas' expertise in the event would make those odds even better.

What kind of an impact could Thomas himself have on those odds if he makes the team? We'll just have to wait and see what happens when the final team is announced on Sept. 3.

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