2024 Masters first-round leader picks: 3 FRL bets

2024 Masters First-Round Leader Picks

Typically, my strategy for targeting first-round leaders is that I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.

The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, and that will be the case on Thursday.

Thursday projects to be a bad weather day with both wind and rain, but the morning wave is expected to get pounded by it far more drastically than the afternoon wave is projected. Therefore, those teeing off in the second wave on Thursday are likely to possess an advantage.

Brooks Koepka +2500 (FanDuel | 0.17 Units)

Thursday Tee Time: 1:36 p.m. ET

That brings us to Brooks Koepka, who tees off in the 28th of 30 groups on Thursday. Whenever there is a major championship, Koepka should be one of the first names to consider.

He always elevates his game against tougher competition, and these stiffer tests of golf help emphasize his elite long-iron play, which is why he is a five-time major champion. None of those five have come at Augusta, but he certainly possesses the tools to take down the opening round.

He finished runner-up here last season, marking his second tie for second at the Masters over his past five appearances. I believe part of the reason that this number is as long as 25-1 is that Koepka hasn't been scoring well over on the rival LIV circuit.

With that said, comparing Koepka's effort-level on LIV Golf versus the Masters is why that doesn't bother me at all. Koepka held a share of the first-round lead at the Masters last year at 7-under 65, and I like his chances of doing so again on Thursday.

Jordan Spieth +2800 (FanDuel | 0.14 Units)

Thursday Tee Time: 1:48 p.m. ET

Jordan Spieth tees off in the group immediately following Koepka, so he will also possess the afternoon-wave advantage. While Spieth has failed to return to the level of domination that we saw in the mid-2010s, he's still one of the world's best golfers.

Spieth had a terrific performance at last year's Masters en route to his tie for fourth. Since then, he has posted seven top-10 finishes over the past 20 tournaments. Augusta has always been a great fit for Spieth's game because of his elite prowess around the green, and the wide fairways let him get away with some inaccuracy off the tee.

The 2015 Masters champion is constantly near the top of leaderboards, but he isn't taking any of them down. I think that will end sooner rather than later, but for now, I trust him more on a Thursday than I do on a Sunday.

Sahith Theegala +4500 (FanDuel | 0.11 Units)

Thursday Tee Time: 1:48 p.m. ET

The final golfer to target in the first-round leader market on Thursday is Sahith Theegala, who tees off alongside Spieth in the second-last grouping of the day. Theegala mightily impressed in his Augusta debut last season, finishing ninth after he gained strokes on the field in every single category.

It was a brilliant performance at a course that is notorious for the importance of experience. Now Theegala has that under his belt, and he has only improved since then. Like Spieth, Theegala has a tendency to get wayward off the tee while also possessing an elite short game, so Augusta National is a great fit for his game.

He tied for ninth at THE PLAYERS Championship and second at The Sentry, proving the level of competition this week will not deter the 26-year-old.

Here's my full betting card for the 2024 Masters:

Hideki Matsuyama Outright Winner (+2200 at DraftKings) – 0.36 Units

Viktor Hovland Outright Winner (+3500 at DraftKings) – 0.33 Units

Matthew Fitzpatrick Outright Winner (+4500 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units

Collin Morikawa Outright Winner (+5000 at FanDuel) – 0.27 Units

Shane Lowry Top 5 (+900 at FanDuel) – 0.24 Units

Russell Henley Top 10 (+550 at bet365) – 0.20 Units

Brooks Koepka FRL (+2500 at FanDuel) – 0.17 Units

Jordan Spieth FRL (+2800 at FanDuel) – 0.14 Units

Sahith Theegala FRL (+4500 at FanDuel) – 0.11 Units