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The nominations are in: Who deserves Oscar gold in 2019?

The nominations are in: Who deserves Oscar gold in 2019?

The nominations are in for the 91st Academy Awards, and the field is full of both expected and slightly controversial picks. Regardless of whether you love them or hate them, buckle up, because here are the nominees for the Oscar's major categories, along with our picks for who should win and who is expected to win. No one is likely to come out of this fully satisfied, but if anything it reminds us that true quality only occasionally surfaces in a popularity contest driven by studio campaign budgets. ("Vice," we're looking at you.)

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Best Adapted Screenplay

  • "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" — written by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
  • "BlacKkKlansman" — written by Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee
  • "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" — screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
  • "If Beale Street Could Talk" — written for the screen by Barry Jenkins
  • "A Star Is Born" — screenplay by Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper and Will Fetters

Who should win: Largely ignored, "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" is a cornucopia of what makes up everything we love about the Western genre. Within its vignettes we get action, comedy, suspense and melancholy. If the film itself is an understated masterpiece, this eclectic screenplay is the driver of that.

Who will win: Honestly, it's a toss-up between Barry Jenkins' deft take on James Baldwin's classic "If Beale Street Could Talk," another film woefully undernominated this year, and "BlacKkKlansman," which could be the story of the night, as it serves as the Academy's opportunity to make up for lost time with Spike Lee. We'll go with "BlacKkKlansman."

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Best Original Screenplay

  • "The Favourite" — written by Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
  • "First Reformed" — written by Paul Schrader
  • "Green Book" — written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
  • "Roma" — written by Alfonso Cuarón
  • "Vice" — written by Adam McKay

Who should win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara fuel Yorgos Lanthimos' fever dream of a dark comedy in "The Favourite," delivering sharp and often satiric dialogue to match Lanthimos' garish and stark view of British aristocracy that seethes with humor and uncomfortability in a way we love.

Who will win: Paul Schrader, after years of unheralded classic scripts such as "Taxi Driver" and "Raging Bull," will finally get his due with his first nomination, despite being rather conflicted about it with "First Reformed," a personal tale about a small-town pastor having a crisis of faith.

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Best Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Amy Adams — "Vice"
  • Marina de Tavira — "Roma"
  • Regina King — "If Beale Street Could Talk"
  • Emma Stone — "The Favourite"
  • Rachel Weisz — "The Favourite"

Who should win: This is almost unfair. Both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz put in wickedly droll performances in "The Favourite," and to be forced to choose between the two may make voters look elsewhere (as they likely will). But for our money, Stone's performance as a down-on-her-luck lady who will stop at nothing to ingratiate herself with a mad queen edges out Weisz as her conniving rival.

Who will win: The Academy has been known to throw an occasional curveball, and on a night that feels like it has already been given to Alfonso Cuarón's "Roma," it won't be in any way shocking to see Mexican actress Marina de Tavira go home with Oscar gold for her role as the matriarch of a well-to-do family who cares for her maid as one of her own.

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Best Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Mahershala Ali — "Green Book"
  • Adam Driver — "BlacKkKlansman"
  • Sam Elliott — "A Star Is Born"
  • Richard E. Grant — "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
  • Sam Rockwell — "Vice"

Who should win: We almost feel like the actor who should win is not even nominated (cough, Michael B. Jordan, cough), but that's another article for another day. If we're being totally honest, the actor who should win is Sam Elliot, whose performance isn't only the best part of the latest "A Star Is Born" remake, but also the living basis for director Bradley Cooper's own Oscar-nominated performance. It simply doesn't get more meta than that. Plus, Elliot is owed for being snubbed for his performance in 2017's "The Hero."

Who will win: Call him a sentimental favorite on the fringes of stardom, but Richard E. Grant seems like a shoo-in for his role as partner in forgery Jack Hock, in the touchingly bittersweet "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

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Best Actress in a Leading Role

  • Yalitza Aparicio — "Roma"
  • Glenn Close — "The Wife"
  • Olivia Colman — "The Favourite"
  • Lady Gaga — "A Star Is Born"
  • Melissa McCarthy — "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Who should win and who will win: We're not going to go with anyone other than Olivia Colman, who blows away her competition as the ornery, depraved and slightly detached Queen Anne in Yorgos Lanthimos' "The Favourite." Colman is a bipolar fireball of loony lust and defiance as a monarch who couldn't care less about anything outside her own pleasures, but she is also not nearly as vacant as those who scheme around her believe. An absolute joy of a performance.

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Best Actor in a Leading Role

  • Christian Bale — "Vice"
  • Bradley Cooper — "A Star Is Born"
  • Willem Dafoe — "At Eternity’s Gate"
  • Rami Malek — "Bohemian Rhapsody"
  • Viggo Mortensen — "Green Book"

Who should win: This might be one of the stickier categories. On one hand, Christian Bale embodies the very essence of Dick Cheney as we know him in the starkly overrated "Vice," a film that owes its existence to his performance. On the other hand, Bradley Cooper pulls off a similar embodiment, that of his co-star Sam Elliot, and he cast him as his brother in "A Star is Born." So maybe since he pulled that trick off, he deserves the Oscar...at least as a consolation prize?

Who will win: Bale, duh.

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Valerie Macon/Getty Images

Best Director

  • Spike Lee — "BlacKkKlansman"
  • Pawel Pawlikowski — "Cold War"
  • Yorgos Lanthimos — "The Favourite"
  • Alfonso Cuarón — "Roma"
  • Adam McKay — "Vice"

Who should win: The Academy owes Spike Lee. Since snubbing him in 1990 for the real best film of 1989, "Do the Right Thing," Lee has yet to see any honors despite a career full of films for which he not only blazed a trail but also set a standard for an entire generation of filmmakers. While "BlacKkKlansman" is by no means his best work, it is absolutely an important film as well as a return to form. It would be the perfect opportunity for the Academy to reward Lee with something more than the Thalberg Award in another 10 years.

Who will win: While Alfonso Cuarón is a master filmmaker, he is also the Academy's opportunity to say, "hey, we honor diversity" as opposed to finally giving African-American filmmakers their due. But let's not be entirely petty: "Roma" is gorgeous, if not slightly inert and maybe a tad bit overrated. Cuarón won in 2013 for his vastly superior "Gravity," and maybe it's best to leave it at that, but the Academy, of course, likely won't.

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Best Picture

  • "Black Panther" — Kevin Feige, Producer
  • "BlacKkKlansman" — Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, Producers
  • “Bohemian Rhapsody” — Graham King, Producer
  • "The Favourite" — Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos, Producers
  • "Green Book" — Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers
  • "Roma" — Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón, Producers
    “A Star Is Born” Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor, Producers
  • "Vice" — Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers

Who should win: For us, we're faced with another toss-up in the form of "Black Panther" and "BlacKkKlansman." In a way, the Academy saw this sort of thing coming when it tried and failed to create a new category for this year, the Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film, which was basically a, "hey, we can't let a superhero film win Best Picture" panic award. But simply put: "Black Panther" can't be denied. If Best Picture should emulate not only the best film but also the best achievement in film for a year, no film, not even the equally deserving "BlacKkKlansman," served as the cultural flashpoint that "Black Panther" was. More than a simple comic book movie, the film asked cultural questions unheard of in the genre, if not mainstream film as a whole, and for that it should go home with the top prize.

Who will win: Let's be serious. The Academy would rather vote for a fish sex flick than Jordan Peele's superior "Get Out," so it's almost a guarantee that "Roma" will be the Academy's out over "Black Panther" and "BlacKkKlansman." And let's be fair: "Roma" is not "The Shape of Water," as it tells a story far more salient and compelling. If "Roma" has to win, it's not going to be a film that has people scratching their heads and wondering why. Even if we don't agree with it, if "Roma" wins Best Picture it'll be somewhat mostly deserved. 

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