Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. New Mexico State Aggies Prediction and Odds (10/11/2023): Winless Bearkats Face Elite Aggies’ Rushing Attack

Defensively, Sam Houston has done well. They allow 24.2 points per game, the third-lowest mark in the C-USA. Additionally, opposing passers throw for less than 200 yards per game against the Bearkats. They complete 62% of their passes. However, the front seven have gotten tested. They allow 4.5 yards per rush attempt. They are in the middle of the conference in yards per game and yards per play allowed. Sam Houston also could be better at forcing turnovers.

New Mexico State Aggies Key Stats

The New Mexico State Aggies are one of four teams in the C-USA to score more than 30 points per game (30.5). They have been fantastic throwing the football, completing 63% of their passes. Starting quarterback Diego Pavia has thrown for 1,329 yards and 12 scores against five picks across his team’s first six games. The Aggies average a conference-high 6.1 yards per rush attempt and 7.9 yards per play. However, they do average north of one turnover committed per game.

New Mexico State has done well on defense in 2023. They allow 24.8 points per game, but opposing quarterbacks throw for 248 yards per game on a 63% completion percentage. However, the rushing defense has looked great. Opposing backfields average just 3.9 yards per rush attempt. Unfortunately for Aggie fans, NMSU is second to last in the conference in turnovers forced per game.

Game Prediction

I like the New Mexico State Aggies to cover in Week 7. They have been fantastic at controlling the line of scrimmage, especially on the offensive end of the ball. Sam Houston State has also struggled to run the ball and stop the run in 2023. That is a recipe for disaster when facing this year’s rendition of the Aggies. The splits heavily favor NMSU, so let’s roll with them to cover the short spread on Wednesday.

Pick: New Mexico State -3.5 (-105)