NCAAF News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Newsletter

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Sam Hartman (10) celebrates after Notre Dame defeated the USC Trojans. Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

NCAAF Week 8 betting: Last week's lessons lead to this week's wins

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 10/16/23

Week 7 had some good games, but with USC falling way short in their effort (and losing), I was left a little disappointed with the action from this past week. The Big Ten was pretty quiet, even if Iowa did win at Wisconsin without scoring much. Nevertheless, there is always something to learn or at least be mindful of from each segment. Here is what caught my eye.

Week 7 Observations ...

Another one bites the dust

I have to admit I didn't think that Notre Dame had it in them, but they were able to stymie the USC attack and QB Sam Hartman easily outplayed Caleb Williams. If the Irish were still in the playoff hunt Hartman would be in the Heisman conversation for sure, but it is too little too late at this point. With the loss, it looks like USC is now out of the playoff race ... although, they do still have games upcoming against Washington, Oregon, and Utah. All ranked teams,

Betting takeaway ... the Trojans' schedule is backloaded. That could mean there are some more opportunities to fade the Trojans if you are nonbelievers. They are home to Utah this week and the Utes have had their number before.

Pac-12 depth

Washington and Oregon played a great game that somebody had to lose last week. However, even with the loss above the Trojans are the only 4-0 team in the league this season (Washington is 3-0). From top to bottom, the league has never been better as is being torn apart. The question is whether a team can have a perfect season in the league and still be in the playoff hunt by the end of the season. There are still five teams with just one loss on the season.

Betting takeaway ... taking some underdogs from here on out might be a very good strategy. So many of these teams are very good.

Changing of the guard at the top

The SEC has been considered the bully of the NCAAF world, and for good reason. However, Texas and Oklahoma don't have nearly as much shine coming into the league as the likes of USC, Washington, and Oregon do right now in terms of new additions. Plus the trio of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, is probably better than any three top teams from the South this season (maybe last year too). I am not saying it is not close overall but right now the Big Ten looks like the better conference.

Betting takeaway...this observation might not be as rich in terms of betting data other than the handles might start increasing on the Big Ten and that can influence the lines. Those Big Noon Kickoffs can be fun.

ATS winners

There are four teams with perfect 6-0 ATS records this season (yes, this may vary depending on the source). Three are elite teams, Penn State, Oregon, and Oklahoma. The other? UNLV. The Running Rebels have been surprisingly good this season, heck they even held Michigan to just 38 points in their ATS win. I note this as a reminder that the best teams to back are not necessarily the most popular. Next up on the list: Miami of Ohio is 6-1 ATS.

Betting takeaway ... there is lots of evidence about fading the public out there, but this is not necessarily that. Picking winners is what matters, not where you find them. Sometimes you gotta look where nobody else is.

Where are the points?

I have not done all of the homework, but when I looked at the scoreboard for last week I was wondering, where all the scoring was? Prior to Saturday there were 10 games and only three went over, including that epic comeback from Stanford against Colorado. USC was held in check last week and they were the top-scoring team in the country, Washington and Oregon were held under seasonal averages in their battle too. Are these results a blip? Small sample size? Or indicators of something more? Maybe it is the fact that we are in the meet of conference season, or the new clock rules. I am not sure, but it stood out to me in Week 7.

Betting takeaway ... I have never been an under bettor, it is just not as much fun. I am leaning more toward team totals than game totals this season. Or TDs scored by a particular team. Maybe the clock rules shorten up games that are out of reach more so 35-7 games in the third quarter finish 38-10 instead of 47-16.

Check out Yardbarker's betting hub for more previews, predictions, news and analysis.

More must-reads: