College football Week 11: Picks and preview

Pitt still tops the ACC Coastal division, but it's allowed 67 points over the last two games. North Carolina just scored 58 while ending Wake Forest's perfect season. While winning two of their last three games, the Tar Heels have scored 137 points and allowed 141. Pitt snapped a six-game losing streak in this series with its 2019 home victory. Panthers star Kenny Pickett has thrown for 533 yards and three touchdowns in two games versus Carolina.

Prediction: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2)

The Bearcats are not big on style points when it comes to impressing the folks on the College Football Playoff selection committee. In its last three games, Cincinnati beat Navy by seven and last weekend won 28-20 over Tulsa at home. Still, Luke Fickell's group is fifth in the CFP rankings and looking for a fourth straight victory over South Florida, which has posted its two wins at home.

Prediction: South Florida (+23)

No offense to New Mexico State, but this should be nothing more than a glorified scrimmage for the Crimson Tide. Yet, in terms of the big picture, Alabama might have a reason for concern after a rather middling effort in last weekend's 20-14 home win over LSU. The Tide could get a challenge from Arkansas next weekend, then its CFP fate just might be on the line when the Iron Bowl rolls around Nov. 27.

Prediction: Alabama (-51 1/2)

Even with their undefeated record, the Sooners are still way on the outside, looking in at a spot in College Football Playoff. Oklahoma closed October with a 31-point win over Texas Tech -- its largest margin of victory against an FBS opponent this season. Things likely won't be easy against Baylor, which just lost at TCU, but is 5-0 at home, where it beat ranked teams in Iowa State and BYU.

Prediction: Baylor (+5 1/2)

Auburn just split its stretch of four straight games against ranked opponents -- losing to Georgia and last week at Texas A&M while beating Arkansas and Ole Miss. That run ends this weekend against Mississippi State, which is coming off a 31-28 loss to the Razorbacks. Auburn managed just three points against the Aggies but has totaled 80 in winning its last two with the Bulldogs.

Prediction: Auburn (-5 1/2)

The Wolverines rebounded from their back-breaking loss to Michigan State by taking down Indiana. However, another potentially stiff test awaits at Penn State. Michigan's defense rounded back to form by holding the Hoosiers to 195 total yards and seven points, but Penn State has totaled 55 in its last two games. The Nittany Lions have won the last two meetings with Michigan overall, and at Happy Valley. Still, this one could come down to the end.

Prediction: Penn State (+1)

The Badgers are one of four teams tied for first in the Big Ten West. But, the Badgers are the hottest of the group, riding a five-game winning streak, and holding the overall tiebreaker at the moment. Wisconsin has allowed just 37 points and yielded an average of 185.6 total yards, over the last five games. That does not bode well for Northwestern, which has averaged 12.2 while losing four of its last five contests.

Prediction: Wisconsin (-24)

Utah is 5-1 after losing two of its first three games and leads the Pac-12 South Division. The Utes are averaging 41.4 points over their last four contests and just rolled to a 52-7 victory at Stanford. None of that bodes well for Arizona, which is coming off its first win over the season -- 10-3 against a depleted Cal team -- but has allowed 34 or more points five times this season.

Prediction: Utah (-24)

This matchup features two of the four teams currently tied for first place in the Big Ten West. Minnesota blew its chance to keep the outright lead when its four-game winning streak ended last weekend with a rather embarrassing 14-6 home loss to Illinois. Meanwhile, Iowa was far from dominant in its 17-12 win at Northwestern but has some momentum after avoiding a third straight defeat. The Hawkeyes, who have a new starting quarterback in Alex Padilla, will try for a seventh straight win over the Gophers.

Prediction: Iowa (-5 1/2)

Can the "Spoilermakers" do it again? With wins at then-No. 2 Iowa and last week over a CFP top-four and previously undefeated Michigan State squad at home, Purdue has taken on the moniker of "giant killer." And, been rewarded by the CFP committee. However, Ohio State seems like a different challenge altogether. Sure, the Buckeyes beat Penn State and Nebraska over the last two weeks by nine points each, but they've won seven straight and are currently a CFP team. Ohio State has also yielded an average of 14.2 points in its last six contests. Purdue has lost nine in a row at Columbus.

Prediction: Purdue (+20 1/2)

We're down to four undefeated teams at the FBS level. The Roadrunners are no doubt the surprise of that dwindling group, and the CFP selection committee is even giving them their just praise amid the greatest start in program history. UTSA has outscored its last three opponents -- Rice, Louisiana Tech, and UTEP -- 134-39. Meanwhile, Southern Miss has been outscored 241-79 during its current seven-game losing streak.

Prediction: UTSA (-32 1/2)

We don't expect the Tennessee fans in attendance this weekend to be kind to the Bulldogs. Then again, Kirby Smart's gang likely won't take it easy on the Volunteers, who won at Kentucky last weekend for their first triumph over a ranked team in four tries this season. However, Georgia has won four straight and nine of the last 11 versus Tennessee. Oh yeah, the Bulldogs have not allowed more than 13 points to any opponent this season.

Prediction: Georgia (-20)

The Spartans' perfect season ended with a 40-29 thud at upstart Purdue last weekend. More damaging for Michigan State, which has yielded 73 points the last two games, is that it also dropped out of the CFP top four. That said, this weekend presents a solid bounce-back opportunity against Maryland, which has been outscored 217-99 while losing four of its last five games.

Prediction: Michigan State (-13)

This could be a fun one. Mississippi averages 45.0 points while sitting 5-0 at home. Texas A&M, though, has won four in a row and allowed 31 points over its last three contests overall. This will be just the second true road game of the season for the Aggies, who have won the last three meetings against Ole Miss -- with the most recent coming in 2019. Texas A&M has also won five of its last six trips to Oxford.

Prediction: Texas A&M (-2 1/2)

The consensus seems to contend that the Irish are not really in the mix for a College Football Playoff spot. They would need to keep winning and other things to fall into place. Notre Dame, though, has averaged 35.3 points during its four-game winning streak following that 24-13 home loss to Cincinnati. A trip to Virginia, however, can present a real challenge considering the Cavaliers have outscored their opponents 198-91 while sitting 4-1 at home. These schools last met in Charlottesville in 2015.

Prediction: Notre Dame (-5 1/2)

Arkansas has made some serious strides this season. The Razorbacks are headed to a bowl and have been acknowledged by the CFP committee. However, they've lost their only two true road games this season -- against ranked Georgia and Ole Miss teams. Arkansas has dropped five straight versus LSU since winning there in 2015. The Tigers are playing hard in the final weeks of the Ed Orgeron era, and after nearly upsetting Alabama last weekend, seem capable of getting the job done Saturday.

Prediction: LSU (+2 1/2)

There's plenty on the line in this matchup of the top two teams in the ACC Atlantic Division. Wake Forest's undefeated season ended at the hands of N.C. State's biggest Tobacco Road rival last weekend. The Demon Deacons, though, have outscored their opponents 200-81 while going 5-0 at home. The Wolfpack outscored Louisville and Florida State 56-27 to win two straight following their loss at Miami, Fla. Wake Forest has won its last two home meetings in this series.

Prediction: Wake Forest (-2)

Oklahoma State has quietly gone about its business this season, winning games and putting itself in a position to win the Big 12 -- perhaps. Second in the league behind rival Oklahoma, the Cowboys outscored Kansas and West Virginia 79-6 over the past two weeks. They've yielded just 76 points while going 5-0 at home this season. TCU, meanwhile, stunned Baylor 30-28 to win its first game in the post-Gary Patterson era. However, the Horned Frogs have been outscored by 40 in losing their last two road games to Oklahoma and Kansas State.

Prediction: Oklahoma State (-13)

These Ducks don't pile up the points and dominate the pace of play that Oregon teams of the past. Oregon, though, boasts one of the nation's most exciting players in running back Travis Dye (820 rushing yards, 277 receiving yards), who just rushed for a career-high 211 yards on 28 carries against Washington last weekend. Washington State has allowed 369 rushing yards over its last two games.

Prediction: Oregon (-14)

San Diego State is still shown love by the CFP selection committee, but the tests continue for the Aztecs. They rank among the national leaders allowing an average of 16.7 points. Nevada, however, is tied with San Diego State atop the Mountain West's West Division. The Wolf Pack boasts potential first-round NFL draft pick Carson Strong, who enters the week ranked fourth in the nation with 3,197 passing yards and tied for seventh with 25 touchdowns.

Prediction: San Diego State (-2 1/2)