Was it worth it? Revisiting baseball's 2015 free agent class

As Major League Baseball turns its attention away from the World Series, it is time to fire up the hot stove as the baseball-less winter is ahead. Yet, while the temperatures drop and stadiums are evacuated, the busy season for player movement is just getting underway. It is the part of the year where every player on the open market gets a bit more attention and the deficiencies of every club are looked to be instantly solved.

And as the emphasis on solving problems picks up, so does the stock of nearly every name brand free agent – and more. The 2016 free agent class had a plethora of high-profile names: David Price, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes and more all making it be one of the busiest winters of all-time. But after the rumor mill slowed down, the contracts were inked and the new (or same) jerseys were adorned, it was time to get down the business of showing and proving for all of these wintertime superstars – something that came easier for some than others.

With the 2016-2017 MLB winter upon us, it is a fine time to have a look back at last year’s free agent crop and see if the offseason hype paid off after all.

Yoenis Cespedes Contract: 3 years/$75 million, with an opt-out after year one Season: .280 avg/30 home runs/81 RBI/.354 on-base % Was it worth it? In the immediate sense, yes. The Mets knew coming in that it was a virtual certainty that Cespedes would retry his odds on the open market this year of landing the type of long-term deal that eluded him last winter. However, the Mets were able to return to the postseason for a second consecutive year, which essentially was the main goal of such a deal in the first place. They will look find a way to work out that long-term deal with Cespedes this winter, although he will return to the open market as easily the top option in much shallower pool a year later.
Johnny Cueto Contract: 6 years/$130 million, with an opt-out after 2017 Season: 18-5, 2.79 ERA, 198 strikeouts, 219 innings, 1.09 WHIP Was it worth it? Absolutely. Cueto turned into the value signing of the year, with his $15 million 2016 rate being a huge value in a comeback season of sorts.. He finished in the top five in the National League in wins, innings pitched, win percentage and led it with five complete games. Even his final guaranteed year price tag of $21 million is a bargain in today’s going rate for top flight starters.
Chris Davis Contract: 7 years/$161 million Season: .221 avg/38 home runs/84 RBI/99 runs scored Was it worth it? If for no other reason than the O’s were able to keep their biggest power threat and also push back $42 million of the deal in deferred money over the life of the contract, yes. His number slid closer to a medium behind his alarming 2014 and productive 2015 levels, but he still presents an elite power threat at a reasonable price range that won’t handcuff their development.
Ian Desmond Contract: 1 year/$8 million Season: .285 avg/22 home runs/86 RBI/21 stolen bases Was it worth it? After being seen as a lost cause option at shortstop and being handcuffed by a qualifying offer attached to him, Desmond was left to rot on the free agent pile. However, the Rangers made the coup of the year and got more out of a sub-$10 million commitment than any other team. Desmond made the All-Star team while quickly acclimating to the outfield, and played a vital part in helping the Rangers to the American League’s best record. 

He is now in line again for another big payday, and despite being yet again tied to a QO, there are far less questions about where he can fit in on an everyday basis.

Dexter Fowler Contract: 1 year/$13 million, with a mutual option for 2017 (which he has already declined) Season: .276 avg/13 home runs/13 stolen bases/.393 on-base % Was it worth it? Without a doubt. Fowler was a late return to Chicago after nearly signing with the Orioles, but he instantly became the most important leadoff hitter in the game. He stabilized the Cubs’ outfield while Kyle Schwarber dealt with injury and Jason Heyward underachieved at the plate. He will return to the market with a renewed value and enhanced image due to the Cubs’ success.
Alex Gordon Contract: 4 years/$72 million Season: .220 avg/17 home runs/40 RBI/.312 on-base % Was it worth it? By and large, no. Gordon experienced his worst season as a pro, on the heels of a year where he drastically declined after returning from a groin injury in late 2015. Gordon’s deal was largely sealed by his stance as the franchise’s long-term face and his desire to remain in Kansas City. Now the financially limited Royals are strapped to Gordon’s deal as they face tough decisions on who to keep from their younger, more productive core.
Zach Greinke Contract: 6 years/$206 million, with a $18 million signing bonus Season: 13-7, 4.37 ERA, 134 strikeouts, 158.2 innings, 1.27 WHIP Was it worth it? In the immediate sense, no. But the Diamondbacks year was a complete wash that was not solely on Greinke’s shoulders to bear. But now as the organization renews itself from the front office, down through the coaching staff, much of the club’s ability to rebuild will be tied to either Greinke’s return to form or if they will be able to deal him to accelerate their reboot.
Injuries besieged some of his productivity (though he was much better in June and May), but if any of his back issues begin to nag him into next year, this could be a massive loss on investment.   Jason Heyward Contract: 8 years/$184 million, two player opt-outs after 2018 and 2019 Season: .230/7 home runs/49 RBI/.306 on-base % Was it worth it? Heyward’s lack of production at the plate in 2016 was by far the worst of his career, and immediately makes this contract appear to be the most dangerously lopsided of the year. While he was still superb in the field, earning his third consecutive Gold Glove, the Cubs did not pay him $21 million this year to hit .230 and reach base at nearly a 50-point lower clip than he has on his career average. Heyward’s offensive ceiling has always been in question, but a year after hitting his floor there is much more uncertainty than there should be around a player with $160 million left due to him through 2022.
Daniel Murphy Contract: 3 years/$37.5 million Season: .340 avg/25 home runs/104 RBI/47 doubles Was it worth it? This was the most important free agent deal of the year, and the best value as well. Murphy played at an MVP level throughout the duration of the year, and ended up leading the NL in doubles, slugging percentage and on-base+slugging as well. He came up just short of the NL batting title as well, due largely in part to sitting out the later part of the Nationals’ schedule due to injury and them having clinched the NL East already.
But Murphy was massively important, carrying the offensive load while Bryce Harper struggled to find consistency. After being the third option for the Nats, who heavily pursued Ben Zobrist and attempted to trade for Brandon Philliips before inking Murphy, he is now a huge bargain just a year later.
David Price Contract: 7 years/$217 million Season: 17-9, 3.99 ERA, 228 strikeouts, 230 innings, 1.20 WHIP Was it worth it? Price received the biggest pitching contract in baseball history when he made the jump to the Red Sox, one that will pay him an average of $31 million annually through his 36th birthday. But for a team that was in desparate need of front line pitching, Price fit the bill. And while he had a rocky first half, he was a workhorse throughout.
Price will need to get back towards being more than just a high-quality innings eater going forward to justify his price tag, but for the time being he still is huge part of the Boston offering.
Justin Upton Contract: 6 years/$132 million, with an opt-out after 2017 Season: .246/31 home runs/87 RBI/.310 on-base % Was it worth it? Well, Upton was who he is in 2017: inconsistent, yet ultimately productive. He hit only .235 with nine home runs before the All-Star break, but then connected for 22 long balls and 49 RBI after the break, while drastically cutting down the strikeout total that has always plagued him. One thing for certain is that the Tigers were much better when Upton was better, so his impact made a difference. He’ll be a vital part of their offense headed forward, so the deal looks fairly solid, as long as Upton is seen through the right lense as a compliment --not a center-- piece.
Ben Zobrist Contract: 4 years/$56 million Season: .272 avg/18 home runs/76 RBI/.386 on-base % Was it worth it? Zobrist’s presence was invaluable in steadying the Cubs everyday approach, while also providing flexibility in its everyday lineup capability. He was an All-Star second baseman during the regular season, serving as the team’s cleanup hitter as well, producing a 4.2 WAR at the plate. He then morphed into a left fielder to best suit the team’s postseason fit, and won the World Series MVP by hitting .357 and scoring five runs versus the Indians.

From the beginning, Zobrist was an intangibles signing; a final piece to the potent framework the Cubs were putting together for their successfully championship run. Now he will remain a flexible part of allowing them to remain at that level. A fantastic deal and easily the best fit of the year.