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Three reasons why the Toronto Blue Jays could make (or miss) the World Series
Edwin Encarnacion of the Toronto Blue Jays already has three dingers this postseason and can be the edge going into the American League Championship Series. Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

Three reasons why the Toronto Blue Jays could make (or miss) the World Series

On the heels of a pair of somewhat shocking sweeps in both Divisional Series matchups, the American League Championship Series is suddenly imminent. Both the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians thoroughly put down the Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers, respectively, and now stand eye-to-eye for the rights to host the World Series in just over two weeks’ time.

Despite entering the postseason as a Wild Card team, Toronto did win 89 games this season and likely had a few more victories shaved off due to being amid the gauntlet of the American League East. That goes to say that they are a better team than their record indicates, and the type of club that can defy the odds of opening and closing a series on the road.

But can the Jays do just that? Especially when tasked with a Cleveland Indians team that just made short work of the Boston Red Sox team that finished ahead of the Jays in the AL East?

Here is are the key elements to a Toronto World Series run, including what can make or break their chances going forward.

Keys To The Series

Josh Donaldson

Donaldson has been at max effort throughout the postseason, battling a number of injuries. However they have not derailed his production, as he has hit .473 throughout four postseason games and scored the ALDS series-clinching run. He is yet to homer in the series however, after hitting 37 during the regular season slate. If he inserts his power element into the upcoming affairs, he’ll be an even bigger headache to deal with.

Edwin Encarnacion

For all of the power that Donaldson has not yet tapped in, Encarnacion has more than made up the slack. He has launched three home runs so far this postseason, including the walk off shot in Wild Card game. His 1.400 OPS is tops among all hitters so far this October and he is the biggest part of the Blue Jay lineup.

Marcus Stroman

After a rocky regular season that featured a 9-10 record, a 4.37 ERA and allowing 21 home runs, Stroman regained the form that made him an October sensation a year ago. He allowed only two runs over six innings, while striking out six against the Orioles, setting the tone for the heroics that later followed. Stroman is in line to get a home start again in this series, as his AL-leading ground ball rate is much needed in the home run-friendly Rogers Centre.

Troy Tulowitzki

After hitting .254 during the regular season and carrying a career-low .318 on-base percentage, expectations on Tulo being a major difference maker in the postseason were not huge on anybody’s radar. However, he broke out against the Rangers, hitting .462 (6 for 13) with a triple, home run and five RBI. If he can continue to produce at this pace, Tulo will be the biggest, unexpected presence in the series.

Three Reasons Why They Could Win

1. The offense has come back to life.

The Blue Jays emerged from the Division Series as the team that wasted that most decisively handled its business throughout the early stages of the postseason. Having already eliminated both the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers in under a week’s time, they have won 4 of 4 games, scoring 26 runs in the process. It has been an offensive explosion from the Toronto lineup that has been well-timed, but against what their production trend had been entering the postseason. The Blue Jays lineup had produced just over three runs per game over the month of September, before its recent eruption. If the Jays can keep this pace up, they will have far and away the most potent offensive attack remaining in either league and will near impossible to stop.

2. The bullpen has been surprisingly strong

Granted, they inherited some fairly sizable leads, but the Jays bullpen was nails against the Rangers. Only Marco Estrada pitched further than the sixth inning, but the Jays pen upheld the starts by J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez remarkably. They allowed only two runs in 8.2 innings, while allowing only 4 hits and two walks against six strikeouts. The most important part of this mix is that closer Roberto Osuna showed no ill effects of the shoulder injury that pulled him out of the Wild Card play-in game and was able to close out game 2 of the series, notching a save. In addition, signs are leading towards Francisco Liriano being able to return in time for the ALCS as well, after being hospitalized due to being struck by a ball during ALDS game 2. Having both available will be huge for the pen’s chances at a sustained run.

3. They are surprisingly good defensively.

The Jays finished second in the AL in runs prevented this year, behind only the Indians, ironically. They can fill the gaps and keep the aggressive Indians baserunners honest with their defensive prowess. Kevin Pillar is a top flight center fielder, while Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki have Gold Gloves in their trophy cases. They are capable of both piling on runs, but also cutting innings short as well.

Three Reasons Why They Could Lose

1. An overwhelming Indians pitching staff

It is said that good pitching trumps all come the postseason and nobody has a better overall staff than Cleveland does. Armed with a frontline Cy Young Award contender in Corey Kluber, and an understated, but solid rotation in Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin behind him, these Indians shut down baseball’s best offense in their ALDS matchup. Kluber is lined to potentially make three starts in the ALCS, going games one, four and potentially seven. In addition to their starters, there is also the hottest bullpen in baseball which Terry Francona could fearlessly utilize at any point in the game to win the matchup battle with the major Blue Jay bats. It will be a much tougher task to overcome Cleveland’s pitching in comparison to Texas’ hurlers.

2. The offense goes down the tube again

As for the aforementioned Blue Jay offensive prowess, an outbreak has to follow a lull. If the Blue Jay batters slump again –as they did when they hit .245 between August & September and finished last in the AL in September runs scored— it will be a quick series for them.

3. Jays starters cannot pitch longer into games

While it was sustainable throughout the short term Divisional round, Jays pitchers much work deeper into games to preserve their bullpen for what could be a long ALCS. The Toronto bullpen pitched 40% of the innings and used on average four pitchers per game against the Rangers. This could leave them vulnerable to being gassed by the end of a grueling series, and look no further than the collapse of the San Francisco Giants at the most pivotal point of their playoff run as to why that is a detrimental liability to have.

X-factor: Could they pull off the sweep again?

In theory, absolutely. For as many great rotations have dominated the postseason before, just as many have been overwhelmed as well. And there is no lineup more capable of jumping on a pitcher before he knows what hit him than Toronto’s. They have already hit eight home runs this postseason, with many being the demoralizing variety. If they can live by the long ball, they can make it a short series.

Verdict

All things considered, it should be a dynamic ALCS between two evenly liked teams. On the year, the teams played seven times with the Indians taking the series 4-3. That is a foretelling split, because that is likely how this series will play out as well. The Indians combination of home field advantage is crucial here, as it will take the big Blue Jay bats away from the homer-friendly Rogers Centre enough for the superior Indians pitching staff to assert dominance.

The Blue Jays have more than just a chance to get the job done, but they will have to do so in a different style than they have won with so far. The Indians are simply just a better-rounded team than either Baltimore or Texas, and are playing with an awful lot of confidence.

The series will go the distance, but it will start and finish in Cleveland – and in the Indians favor.

Can you name the players who were on both of the Toronto Blue Jays back-to-back World Series teams of 1992 and 1993?
SCORE:
0/12
TIME:
3:00
2B
Roberto Alomar
C
Pat Borders
RF
Joe Carter
RP
Mark Eichhorn
SS/3B
Alfredo Griffin
SP
Juan Guzman
1B
John Olerud
3B
Ed Sprague
SP
Todd Stottlemyre
RP
Mike Timlin
RP
Duane Ward
CF
Devon White

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